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This is a good read on the Future of General Motors by Jerry Flint

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0713/autos-general-motors-lutz-backseat-driver.html

If Only GM Could Sell a Few Cars

Jerry Flint, 06.24.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated July 13, 2009

You might think that GM is poised to soar now that its debt has been wiped out. But the firm will get smaller than you think.

The problem with a lot of general motors watchers is that they look at balance sheets and budgets: The debts are wiped out, the extra dealers gone, the labor costs cut, the retiree medical benefits dumped, the toxic assets disappeared. Hooray. Now GM can make some real money.

This leaves a piece of the picture missing, namely, the top line. To stay in business, GM still must sell lots of cars and trucks to real people. And the company is being run by the same crew that destroyed it. As far as I can tell, the financial men have kept their power. The product people--the ones who know about cars--were frozen out in the last big reorganization. The one powerful car guy at the top, Robert Lutz, has thrown in the sponge and is retiring. It's quite possible that new vehicles, after the last of the Lutz-era cars come out, will return to the boring designs of yesterday, with outdated engines and transmissions and cheap, ill-fitting interiors.

That's one reason GM will probably get smaller than you think. Within three years it will be smaller than Ford, maybe smaller than Honda ( HMC - news - people ). GM talks about holding 19% of the U.S. market, but that's not realistic. Before the bankruptcy, in the first four months of this year, GM had 19.2%. The nameplates to be shut (Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer and Saab) are 2.8 points of share, leaving 16.4%. Next, how do GMC-Buick-Pontiac dealers survive when Pontiac, which accounts for one-third of their sales, is gone and the government is stomping on big pickups and sport utility vehicles, the GMC stock in trade? If Buick and GMC shut down, that eliminates another 3.4 points of market share, leaving a 13% share from Chevy and Cadillac.

GM asks potential car buyers to trust the company. But it's tough to win trust when nameplates are killed, dealers axed and the streets filled with unhappy workers and retirees. So I would guess potential customers will drift away to other automakers. That might amount to maybe a three-point loss, bringing GM's share to 10% of the market. In a weak year, when 10 million cars and pickups are sold in the U.S., this means 1 million GM vehicles sold.

Can GM survive on that? The company sold 4 million vehicles only three years ago (2006). GM can stay alive as long as the government's printing presses keep operating (taxpayers are already in for $50 billion). But since this is a White House operation, figure that after the next election, in November 2012, the money stops. So GM will need exciting cars to survive.

It won't be easy to produce them. Opel, an important developer of front-drive cars under GM's global dream, has new owners. While GM will retain a 35% equity stake, the German engineers won't be obliged to listen when Detroit asks for compromises in design to fit both markets. All their energies will be put into saving Opel.

Statistics of the Day

*College tuition increased by 6.6% a year over the past decade, a rate that is approximately 2.4 times that of inflation.

*Between 1997 and 2007 the administrative and support staffs at colleges expanded by 4.7% a year, double the rate of enrollment growth.

*If the employment trends of the last decade are sustained, then administrative employees will outnumber instructors at four year colleges by 2014.

Quote of the Day

"The one who takes a chance, who walks the line between the known and the unknown, who won't accept failure, will succeed." -- Susan Fielder

The New GM

Quote of the Day

"Nothing so liberalizes a man and expands the kindly instincts that nature puts in him as travel and contact with many kind of people."  -- Mark Twain

Time for Legislature & Strickland to take a page out of Obama's Playbook

I could say about a thousand things about Obama (most of them not very nice...sorry...not a fan), but I am the first to admit this:  He is an incredibly smart politician (maybe one of the smartest ever)

He did a masterful maneuver a few weeks back with the Auto Industry (amongst a litany of terrible moves for our country...but I digress):

http://www.mercurynews.com/green/ci_12397069

The Industry had been clamoring for years about having a uniform standard across all 50 states and Clinton and Bush both were reticent to do such a thing.  Obama basically said, "You want uniform standards?" and the Auto Industry replied "YES!"  Obama:  "Now you are sure this is what you want...one uniform standard?"  and the Auto Industry again replied "YES!"  At that time, Obama shocked them all and picked the state with the most stringent, far-reaching standards of any state and said, "Ok.  You asked for a uniform standard and you probably should have watched what you wished for because I'm putting all states at the same standard as Arnold has in California."  And to that the Auto Industry said, "Huh?!?" and started sobbing uncontrollably.  They wanted a uniform standard, but really they wanted a uniform standard that benefited them.

Probably at the urging of Strickland or Amanda Worst or somebody like that the Race Tracks sent this letter to the relevant parties of this budget:

http://www.gongwer-oh.com/128/raceletter.pdf

If bringing VLTs to Ohio is ONLY about bringing the most money possible into the state coffers with as little pain as possible then I would say this:

*Give Ohio racetracks everything they asked and MORE. 

*The MORE?  Give the state’s 15,000 VLTs business to whomever bids the highest.  Let's not reinvent the wheel here people. Let’s have an auction. 

Quick history lesson: Track Owners could have had VLTs years ago if it weren’t for their multiple poorly organized and greedy ballot/legislative attempts by their owners, lobbyists and consultants. They never asked nicely or put together a proposal that was ‘good’ for them or one of them and ‘great’ for the state. That is why I say they should lose again and this time the state should be the winner.

I digress, so we open the entire process up to get bigger bucks for the state than if we were to just hand 15,000 VLTs to the seven race tracks on a silver platter. 

A business you might have heard of that has been doing quite well by selling ads via auction have shown us the way.  A huge portion of Google's revenue stream is via ad auctions.  They figured out that the best way to monetize a potentially limited revenue stream is via auction. 

Auction off licenses or permits for 15,000 VLTs each year in some denomination for different sized venues.  Five 1,000 VLT license for a bingo hall or bar districts; 5,000 VLT licenses/permits for five tracks (why should all 7 tracks get them, a couple are real dumps that shouldn’t be saved); 10,000 for a facility near a basketball, hockey or football arena. You get the idea. 

If you don’t like that how about auction off all 15,000 VLTS to whomever the highest bidder is...

Good government advocates should love the auction idea because it takes ALL the politics out of it.

If VLTs are such a great idea and they are the only way to save the race track industry in the state of Ohio then each of the owners of the seven race tracks in Ohio better be prepared to offer up the best price for the 5 tracks that get them.  If you give all 7 of them first right of refusal the state doesn’t win.

If a bar owner, convenience store owner, VFW hall, Bingo hall, sports stadium, hotel, airport, etc. feels like they have to have a slot machine at their place of business then they can participate in the auction like everyone else.  And the State wins!

 

Can Walker Evans become the next John F. Wolfe?

This is where things stand online today:

San Diego's newspaper (San Diego Union-Tribune) has fallen on hard times (along with the overwhelming majority of most big city newspapers).  Their web version of the paper is at signonsandiego.com (Google Page Rank of 4/10 and Alexa rating of 3,916) whereas its major online competitor is at sdnn.com (Google Page Rank of 5/10 and Alexa rating of 92,478). 

In comparison, the Dispatch is not in as bad of shape as the Union-Tribune, but they are in a much worse position than they were just five years ago.  Their web version of the paper is at columbusdispatch.com (Google Page Rank of 6/10 and Alexa rating of 115,254) whereas its major online competitor is at columbusunderground.com (Google Page Rank of 3/10 and Alexa rating of 159,362).

Please take a minute to read the following article and view it through the prism of "What if Walker Evans adopted Neil Senturia's model"?

Just something to think about...

San Diego Shoot-Out

Dirk Smillie, 06.24.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated July 13, 2009

Neil Senturia, founder of SDNN

As a monopoly newspaper crumbles, unorthodox upstarts storm the marketplace. Welcome to the future of journalism.

If you want a glimpse of what local news may soon look like, head to San Diego. Here you'll find a Web venture that gives writers a cut of the ad money created by their own stories; another whose nonprofit founders raise cash from readers to buy laptops for their reporters; and a third, which, in spite of the $10 million it nets each year, faces a very uncertain future.

All three are vying for the attention of 3 million San Diegans, an affluent population living in neatly landscaped suburbs and large beachfront properties. The area is rife with biotech startups and defense contractors. San Diego is California's second-largest city, yet it's a one-newspaper town whose newspaper is faltering. Ad revenue at the San Diego Union-Tribune has dropped 40% since 2006.

In March Platinum Equity, a Beverly Hills buyout firm with no experience in publishing, said it would acquire the paper. Analysts say Platinum is more interested in the 13 acres of prime real estate at the Mission Valley headquarters than its flagship product. "They bought the land and got the newspaper free," says one developer. In May Platinum announced that 192 Union-Tribune staffers would be laid off. A newspaper that once employed 1,422 people will soon employ 572. "The Union-Tribune is cratering. That opens a hole in the market and the opportunity for some unconventional business models," says Ken J. Doctor, media analyst at Outsell.

Neil (Baby) Senturia, a San Diego technology entrepreneur known for his trademark black baseball caps, agrees. He launched the San Diego News Network (sdnn.com) in March using a "regional aggregation strategy"--akin to a blogging model for news. "Let the AP cover Obama and the Middle East. We'll deliver news generated by everyone from community weeklies to local TV stations. Everybody gets to play in our sandbox," Senturia says.

Those who bring their buckets and shovels get a slice of the ad pie, if the money arrives. Payroll costs will be minimal, says Senturia, because SDNN reporters are paid an 80% cut of the ad revenue generated by the pages on which their stories appear; they also get a small stipend.

Senturia's SDNN is running on a annual budget of about $1 million, which allows him to employ 16 full-timers (some are former Union-Tribune staffers), aided by 23 freelancers and 12 bloggers. His three-month-old site draws an average 125,000 monthly visitors, according to Quantcast. Entertainment and sports-heavy stories drive a lot of readers in. So does coverage of American Idol finalist Adam Lambert, a San Diego native. In May Senturia scored a traffic coup (but a technology defeat) when a Washington Post ( WPO - news - people )-published magazine cited an SDNN story about Lambert. Some 10,000 unique visitors swarmed in over a 20-minute period, blowing out SDNN's servers.

Senturia says he'll average 300,000 monthly visitors within a year. "We secretly think that if we hang around long enough we'll be the paper of record in San Diego," he says. With the larger Union-Tribune'sWeb site in his sights, "we will relentlessly peck away at them," he promises.

Senturia's for-profit news venture is also battling a nonprofit rival: the Voice of San Diego (voiceofsandiego.org). The Voice was launched in 2005 by a group of investors led by philanthropist Ralph B. (Buzz) Woolley (father of FORBES Los Angeles bureau chief Scott Woolley) and Neil Morgan, a former Union-Tribune columnist and editor fired by the paper a year earlier. Its pitches to donors resemble those made by public television during pledge week. A $10,000 contribution gets you membership in the "Editor's Circle." That sum might cover the Voice's costs of Web hosting and e-mail blasts for a year. Donate $1,000 and buy a journalist a new laptop and software.

The Voice, underwritten by 850 individuals and nonprofit benefactors like the Knight Foundation, focuses on investigative coverage of local government, education and housing. Its content is "breathtaking in its wonkishness," cracked the Los Angeles Times in April. Those wonks recently won a national journalism award for a story that caused the ouster and criminal investigation of a redevelopment official, who the Voice revealed was giving herself unauthorized bonuses.

The Voice's $1 million annual budget funds a 12-member staff whose 1,400-square-foot office is inside a former U.S. Navy base. Chief Executive Scott Lewis says the Voice's public policy coverage has no connection to profits or page counts. "We only write about things we know we can report on uniquely and authoritatively." The site averages 78,000 unique visitors a month--and not by covering Adam Lambert, either. "We have no interest in reporting on American Idol, no matter where the contestants are from," huffs Lewis.

So far the Union-Tribune's Web site, signonsandiego.com, hasn't felt much heat, averaging 1.3 million unique visitors a month. The site netted an estimated $10 million on $18 million in sales last year. Analysts wonder whether its fate is tied to that of the mother ship. A better question: Is there really room for three online news ventures in San Diego? Doctor says yes. "Think of the thousands of stories not being written because of the Union-Tribune's cutbacks."

Whatever the cards hold for the Union-Tribune, its new owners are playing tough. In a draconian countermove the paper last month required all employees to sign an "intellectual property" agreement--unusual in the news business. After leaving the Union-Tribune, former employees are banned from encouraging others to follow them to a new workplace.

The Voice broke the story, explaining: "The agreement appears to put a crimp in any employee's plans to create or join a rival company--such as an online news site--and bring recent colleagues on board, even those without jobs." That's one way to beat the competition.

The Future of the Ohio Historical Society

One of the approaches this blog advocated for is starting to occur.

Hopefully the Ohio Historical Society will do more of this in the months and years ahead.

Ohio's history is very important, but sustaining the Ohio Historical Building and grounds is not doable long term. 

Divesting the treasures within to each of the 88 respective counties and then selling the OHS site on I-71 is the only rational thing to do long term.

Here is an article from ThisWeek.  Hopefully the rest of the state will soon follow suit.

City could take ownership of Hanby House

Wednesday,  June 24, 2009 2:35 PM

By LIN RICE

ThisWeek Staff Writer

By Chris Parker/ThisWeek

T

The Hanby House was once home to Benjamin Russell Hanby, composer of numerous songs including "Up on the Housetop."

A house closely associated with the history of Westerville could eventually become city property.

Westerville administrators and the Ohio Historical Society have been in conversation regarding turning over ownership of the Hanby House, 160 W. Main St., to the city. The site is currently owned by the OHS and managed by the Westerville Historical Society.

OHS communications manager Kim Schuette said the process began in January 2008 when the Legislative Service Commission examined 15 historical sites and the incentives that would be offered to local entities that could take control of them. The Hanby House was on that list, she said.

"They selected several sites that they thought would benefit from local ownership, Hanby being one," Schuette said.

Westerville Historical Society president Bill Merriman then approached Westerville City Council with the information, and in March of this year, council and city administrators sat down in a work session to discuss the idea.

"The nature of this is that it would be easier for (the site's) upkeep," Merriman said. "The Westerville Historical Society board of trustees has voted to support this transfer of ownership."

According to city manager David Collinsworth, about $133,000 in capital improvements are needed at Hanby House, including paving of a parking lot, heating and air conditioning, siding, roofing, tree removal and landscaping.

Ongoing maintenance costs for city ownership are estimated at about $10,800, with annual supplies and materials estimated at $2,100.

Services and charges including utilities annually are estimated at $7,600.

The total estimate of operating and maintaining the Hanby House annually is $20,500.

"I strongly support doing this," said council member Craig Treneff. "Our history is important to us. It's a big part of our identity, and Hanby House is a key piece of our history. It makes sense to transfer it to the city."

Collinsworth said a plan could be presented to the OHS later this summer.

"Our next step is to develop with the (Ohio) Historical Society a plan of transition and an agreement of transferring the property, which I think would ultimately result in an actual deed transfer," Collinsworth said. "My expectation is that by the first of August we could have that in their hands."

Schuette said once that happens, the OHS would thoroughly go over the agreement to ensure that the Hanby House would be taken care of over the long run, along with any collection of artifacts the site holds. Ultimately the state legislature would need to approve the transfer, she said.

"Altogether this is definitely going to be a multi-year process," she said. "This is something that doesn't happen quickly, but we want to make sure that the site's preservation and public access are a priority."

The Hanby House was once home to Benjamin Russell Hanby, composer of numerous songs including "Up on the Housetop."

Built in 1846, the house and and associated barn were a busy station on the Underground Railroad.

The home contains personal items and furniture once belonging to the Hanby family.

Governor Strickland & Senate President Harris are both right & both wrong

Crazy busy right now with work, but I just had to do a quick post on this.

Governor Strickland is right when he asks the Senate for solutions on how they would fill the hole if they are not going to accept his proposal.  I am with the Governor on this one. 

An Occasional Thinker, Am I Missing Something and Eye Spy (with a little bit of input on my part) came up with our solution and the Gov has come up with his.  It is time for the Senate to come up with their own plan (Now don't think I woke up naive...I know why they are not doing that, but time is growing short and thank God they have to have a balanced budget by law or we would really be in horrible shape).

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2009/06/filling-the-32-billion-hole-in-the-ohio-budget.html

On the other hand, Governor Strickland is dead wrong (bordering on laughable) on gambling.

The stance he is taking with this is just so bizarre.  This kind of thing could only happen in the world of politics and not be seen as being insane.

Stop and think about it for a moment.

Essentially, Ted Strickland is pissed off at Bill Harris because he is not abandoning his principles and also not saying "F" you to the voters of the state of Ohio.

Ted has abandoned his principles (not the first time and definitely will not be the last) on gambling and he basically thinks the voters of Ohio have just been joking around when they went to the voting booths and repeatedly voted against expanded gambling in this state four times already.  Now he is getting pissed off that Bill won't do the same thing.

Like I said, only in politics is this acceptable behavior by grown men and women.

Bill Harris and the Senate GOP majority should be applauded for sticking with their principles during this tough budget crisis and listening to the will of the people.  It would be one thing if the voters in Ohio had only voted gambling down once, but the people have spoken FOUR times.  Purely the voters in Ohio do not want expanded gambling.  If they did they would have voted for it.

The people have spoken.  It is time for our Governor to listen.

What is more powerful? Media or Money???

This point might get lost in the clutter within this crazy budget process, but I don't know how else to say it.

This nursing home funding situation with this budget is no less than a power struggle between who is more relevant to the Governor and the Legislature: 

Mainstream Media or The Lobbying & Campaign Cash of the Nursing Home Lobby

Do a search for the term "Nursing Homes" on the Dispatch website and you will see no less than 22 stories (most of which are lead Editorials or front page stories) advocating strongly for the decreased funding of the industry. 

On the other side of these reams of paper and barrels of ink is the campaign cash of the nursing home industry (grossly underestimated by my tally by the Dispatch).

I'm kind of conflicted on the issue personally.  Part of me would like to see the nursing home guys prevail at a time when the traditional mainstream media structure's power & influence has been waning.  The other part of me would like the media to win because in this budget I do think it makes sense to go after $100-300 million from the industry...everyone should feel a little belt tightening this go-around and the nursing home guys shouldn't get a free pass when everyone else is chipping in.

It will be interesting to see how it all ends up playing out.

I don't make wagers anymore, but, for the record, if I were to wager on this I'd say the safe money would be to place your bets on the Nursing Home Industry prevailing over the Mainstream Media.

Living with regret

I just don't get it.

If Paula Brooks gets picked by Strickland as LG then this blog post is a moot point because Paula will be on the "Strickland-Brooks 2010" ticket.

If she is not picked to be the LG replacement on the ticket for Lee Fisher then she will not be running for anything in 2010 even though she is running from cover.

I did a post on this back in April in case you missed it:

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2009/04/paula-brooks-kitten-or-lioness-1.html

I hope someone gets her the following book to read if she is not picked LG:

On Grief and Grieving by Elizabeth Kubler Ross

My guess is she'll be experiencing some serious regret once 2014 rolls around.

I'd tell you to get the book at an Ohio library branch, but if Strickland has his way the branch you might typically go to may not be open when you stop in.

Stat of the Day

Just one more figure to consider as we try to figure out our country's transportation issues:

$54

The average in total vehicle expenses per 100 miles for commuters

Source: American Automobile Association

Quote of the Day

"Women were brought up to believe that men were the answer.  They weren't.  They weren't even one of the questions." -- Julian Barnes

The Future of Jennifer Brunner

Jennifer Brunner...Jennifer Brunner...Jennifer Brunner...oh what will you do???

I must admit that this Senate race has been way more interesting on both sides than I ever thought it would be.

On the GOP side I pretty much figured it would be Portman in a walk once Mary Taylor let reason & logic enter her body, but then...poof!...Tom Ganley appeared.

I did this post on the GOP side of things last month.  Here it is if you missed it:

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2009/05/attention-rob-portman-and-bob-paduchik.html

Everything I wrote last month may or may not still hold true.

I word it that way because Tom Ganley has decided that it is not yet any business of the voters of Ohio to know how much he is worth at this point in time (only relevant for answering the self-funding question).

The law says he would have had to file on May 15th or within 30 days of reporting spending or raising $5,000 for the campaign.  Since the reports are quarterly it is safe to assume that Ganley will have spent $5,000 by now which he will have to report for Q2 on July 15th.  It is my understanding that he will have to file his financial disclosure within 30 days of that date.

Upon checking the language within the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 it looks like Ganley could actually wait until August 15th and then just pay a $200 fine for being more than 30 days late.  I am not an attorney and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night so I'm a little cloudy as to what would happen to Ganley after that if he did not file this form after that.  The only case law on the matter is United States v John R. Van Rosendale which was handled by the Civil Division of the Dept of Justice.  I could not find out when the US brought the case up initially or how long the entire process took, but the civil settlement in the Van Rosendale case was only $2,500.  Not to give free advice to Ganley, but if I were worth the kind of money he is worth and I didn't want to tell the world how much I am worth I might think about riding this primary out without filing my financial disclosure and see if the Dept of Justice does anything about it after paying the $200 fine in August.

You see, Rob Portman, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner (i.e. the only other candidates worth mentioning) all complied with the Federal laws and sent in their financial disclosures on May 15, 2009 (Lee did an extension, but complied by June 10th) as they were required to do. 

For some reason, Ganley is stalling on disclosing his financial situation. 

On the dem side of the aisle I am still pretty befuddled as to how things have unfolded thus far.

Tim Ryan coulda been a contenda yet he opted to stay out of this race.  Personally, I think that he made an excellent choice to opt out of this race and to tell Ted to kiss him where the sun doesn't shine on being LG.  Tim is very well positioned in a Pelosi-led House and should stay put.

This dem primary was Zach Space's race to lose and he did not even enter the fray.  I just don't get it.  The guy might end up having a harder time keeping his House seat in a marginal district instead of winning a Senate seat statewide.  The crowded field of candidates all from major metros combined with his stance on key issues would have made him a formidable contenda for this seat as well.  But, for some unknown (to me) reason he opted to not get into this race.  Swift move ex lax!

Once this race was Tim & Zach-free I pretty much assumed it would be Jen Brunner's race to lose in the dem primary IF she received the necessary funding (i.e. she is well liked, good numbers statewide, not terrible on any issues, the only woman in a very crowded sausage fest, etc).  After EMILY's List provided her staff right out of the gate I figured the early major funding they are known for would soon follow.  Much to my dismay (and I can't even imagine what Jen & Rick Brunner, Sandy Theis, Paul Tipps & Gerry Austin are thinking right now) the financial help has not materialized at all.  Brunner got in this race (my understanding is partly due to the prompting to do so by EMILY's List) and all evidence currently available points to the fact that the female powerhouse organization has deserted their capable female candidate.

In my meager attempt to address the issue (kind of like throwing a glass of water in the ocean) I sent this letter to the head of EMILY's List over three weeks ago:

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2009/06/an-open-letter-to-ellen-malcolm-president-founder-of-emilys-list.html

Sure I don't expect to hear back from her or anyone on her behalf, but for Jennifer Lee's sake I hope they at least pay her the common courtesy of at least a phone call or meeting to let her know that they are abandoning her bid to replace George Victor Voinovich as the junior Senator for Ohio.

Damn.  How cold would it be if Ellen Malcolm sent Jennifer Lee a break-up text message like this:

"idk. this just isnt workin out. weve only got eyes 4 corrine n fl. omg we luv her vs crist. c u l8r."

All kidding aside, we will see on July 15th (next time everyone's fundraising status goes public) whether or not Brunner is going to be in a position to stay in this race or not. 

My guess is that the numbers are not going to be pretty for Jennifer Lee.  Furthermore, if she limps through the entire summer and she is still in this race by the filing after that (October 15th) then she is really going to look pathetic compared to Lee's fundraising. 

Having done fundraising for contested Congressional races in the past I can assure you that if the disparity is ugly on July 15th then the sharks are going to smell blood in the water and if JLB is still in this race for the October 15th filing then that report is going to be mugly or even fugly...think JLB money multiplied by a not pretty number to come up with what Lee will have by that point in time.

That said, I still stand by my predictions:

If she gets the necessary funding to wage a real race then she will win the dem primary by a narrow margin and eke out a very close win vs Portman in the fall.

If she does not get the necessary funding (women betraying women...whoda thunk it?) and the disparity between her fundraising and Lee's/Strickland on Lee's behalf fundraising is too great then Brunner will back out of this race by Labor Day if she is smart and not have to even face the embarrassing reporting period in October.

If Lee is the dem candidate then place your bets in Vegas on Portman to win in November 2010 in a close one.

I digress.

This post is focused more on JLB and what she is going to do re: her political future.

Strickland & Redfern will want Brunner to be a good little girl and do what she is told and run for re-election for Secretary of State.

That is not going to happen.

Yep.  You heard it here first.

Sorry Chrissy & Teddy.  You can't beat the friggin' tar out of someone for as long and as hard as you have been beating the tar out of JLB and then think that she is going to capitulate and do what she is told by you guys.

Not gonna do it...wouldn't be prudent...as the church lady would say.

A woman scorned...you know how the saying goes...

If Ted, Chris & Lee are successful in bullying JLB out of the Senate race then she will not back into the SOS race like they want her to do.

If she opts out of the Senate race I think you will see Jennifer Brunner run to be the next Chief Justice of the Ohio Supreme Court for the seat being vacated by Tom Moyer.

What happens to the SOS race, this Rowland vs Brunner battle royale (go Darrell go!!!  don't stop snooping!  you are onto a HUGE story...keep investigating on the state and federal fronts and you will find out some very interesting things) and the Chief Justice race will all be covered in future posts in the next week or so :-)

 

Quote of the Day

"Nothing...will ever be attempted, if all possible objections must be first overcome."  -- Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)

Narcotrafficking, Latin America, Texas and Ohio (Part 1 in a Series)

"Narcotrafficking, Latin America, Texas and Ohio (Part 1 in a Series) is penned by Guest Columnist Steven Hyland.  Steven Hyland is a doctoral candidate in the Department of History at The Ohio State University.   He won a Fulbright Grant and an International Dissertation Research Fellowship from the Social Science Research Council to conduct research in Argentina.  In addition, Steven has visited and/or investigated topics of interest in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Mexico.  At the moment, he is completing his dissertation and has begun the process to pursue a teaching position at the university level.

My neighbor is a young attorney trying to build his business, and in the process of generating revenue some of his clients happen to be accused of drug trafficking. In a brief conversation, I learned quite a bit about the drug trade here in Ohio. Did you know that US Route 33 (coming from the NW) is the major artery for importing drugs into central Ohio? I didn't.

As you can imagine, narcotrafficking is a direct threat to several nations in Latin America, but what is significant is how Ohio is becoming a competing ground for distribution networks peddling narcotics. Texas and the Southwest has long been points of entry and transportation hubs.

This is the launching point for what will be a series of posts on narcotrafficking. I actually devote a class entirely to drug trafficking in my modern Latin American history course. Let's face it, Latin America's two principal contributions to globalization are mass migration and narcotrafficking, both of which disproportionately affect the USA.

Some general observations: For those who advocate neoliberal economics, one must be impressed with the production and distribution of drugs. Long gone are the massive, vertically integrated cartels of the 1980s and 1990s. With the collapse of the Cali Cartel in the mid-1990s, the production of cocaine became decentralized with particular drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) carrying out specific roles (transporting coca to production labs, processing coca paste to cocaine hydrochloride, smuggling cocaine to Mexico/Central America, etc.). The distribution of drugs has fostered the development of competing DTOs in Mexico and provoked a corresponding spike in violence. This violence has and will continue to spill over into US cities. It's already in LA, Phoenix and Houston.

The politics of it are critical, transnational and local. Two weeks ago, Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared democracy in Mexico was "in play" because of the power of the DTOs there. These organizations are adaptive, creative, technologically savvy, and very violent. To give the most recent example, Mexican authorities yesterday discovered more than a ton of cocaine stuffed inside frozen sharks about to be shipped from a port in the Yucatan peninsula. This followed the discovery of 50,000 litres (>13,000 gallons) of ephedrine, enough to produce 40 tons of methamphetamine, or 309 million personal doses, in the state of Sinaloa.

The challenge is enormous, but it is critical to the long term security, democratic governance and public health, both here and abroad...

Strickland welcomes Shaq to Ohio!

"Strickland welcomes Shaq to Ohio!" is penned by An Occassional Thinker.  We appreciate you taking time away from the budget process to help the blog out!

Strickland to Shaq: Welcome to Ohio, big fella

LA Times
Shaq is coming to Cleveland, and Gov. Ted Strickland wants him to feel welcome.

Strickland issued the following statement in response to news that Shaquille O’Neal has been traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers:

“I join all Ohioans and Cavaliers fans in welcoming one of basketball’s legendary players, Shaquille O’Neal, to the Cleveland Cavaliers. I know that Shaq will enjoy playing basketball in Cleveland. With some of the best fans in the country and a pool of talented players, Cleveland is one of the nation’s premier sports cities.

“I also congratulate the Cavaliers team and MVP LeBron James on a dynamic 2009 season. The Cavaliers bring tremendous pride and excitement to our entire state. We look forward to the energy that will come with another successful season.”

P.S.  We look forward to taxing your income... we kind of need the cash!

 

Quote of the Day

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." -- George Bernard Shaw

Republicans killing Republicans

Following is a transcript of an email back & forth from yesterday between me (KS) & Matt Hurley (MH) (owner of Weapons of Mass Discussion, TIB Radio & writer for Red State & Next Right).  With his permission I am posting it.  I wanted to post it because I think it is a good snapshot as to what is wrong with the Republican Party in Ohio. 

Matt is my friend and we agree on 85-90% of things, but our disagreement over that last 10-15% might very well mean a bad election year in 2010.  Ours is not an isolated scenario.  Unfortunately, this is the norm not the rarity these days within the ranks of Ohio’s GOP.

 

 

KS:  I would love to hear your thoughts on what u think harris & the gop senate majority will do on this budget.

MH: I've been putting my money on the Senate Republicans folding under the brave leadership of President Harris and Senators Niehaus and Husted...but I'd love to be wrong. Husted is a douchebag, why are you supporting him?

KS: i think u will probably end up being right about the senate gop...unfortunately.   i like to win.  husted will win.  Any other sos candidate for the gop will lose...o'brien, coughlin, r. montgomery...anyone else u can come up with for the seat...i'd love to hear a name of someone who will actually file & run who can win other than husted.  if husted and taylor prevail then the gop will keep the senate, have a chance to get the house back & maintain a strong majority on the supreme court.  if the gop lose the apportionment board  then the house goes firmly dem thru at least 2022/2024 and the senate goes dem by 2016/2018 and the supreme court switches to a dem majority by 2018/2020.  i truly & wholeheartedly believe in this domino effect (especially with the advances that have been made with technology since the 2000 census).  the gop keeps the app bd then life can be good for the gop with the 2014 election. gop loses the app bd and my Nostradamus predictions come true and we are screwed for a long, long time.  kicking the crap out of husted does no good  whatsoever other than to help the dems make this scenario come true.  thoughts???

MH: You see, I don't think Husted can win either...it takes more than money...a little integrity wouldn't hurt. And I still think the residency issue has potential to hurt him. Brunner keeps kicking that can down the road until the right moment to strike... I also think that Sheriff Jones has a point on that immigration bill too... Now I keep hearing, "But Matt, what do these things have to do with SOS?" My answer is that they don't but Husted doesn't want to be SOS, he wants to be Governor and that idea must be stopped right here and right now.

KS: I get that you don't want him to be Governor, but you are putting the proverbial cart before the horse...one election at a time, my friend. Love him or hate him, as a citizen of Ohio who wants the GOP to not sink into a generational minority the facts are simple:  You need to win 2 out of 3 races in 2010.  I think it is a fool's errand to take the SOS seat off the table thus putting yourself in a position where you have to go 2 for 2 instead of 2 for 3 in elections.   I would rather you swallow your venom for Husted for 16 months and 1 week, pull a Mel Gibson in Braveheart move with the long spears twice as long as a man and "Hold!  hold!  hold! ..." and then on 11/5/10 start the "Mandel for Governor" or "Taylor for Governor" effort and the "Eviscerate Husted" effort at the same time.  For the good of the GOP legislators in the House, Senate and Supreme Court THAT is what you and others in positions of influence should do (in my humble opinion). Thoughts???

MH: There is no stopping Husted or his ego...a humiliating defeat at the hands of Sandy O'Brien or Ham Sandwich is about the only things that might have a chance of penetrating that pathetically huge ego of his. I think the GOP ought to stand on a few principles and Jon Husted does NOT represent those principles at all.  Elevating Jon Husted is not moving forward, but rather yet another leap backwards to the Taft Era that the Ohio GOP really does not need. Thanks for making my argument for me though...Husted can't win in the general, so let's put up a credible candidate who at least has a shot at it. Is that Sandy O'Brien? I don't think so, but I do think she has a better chance than Husted does. And that's saying something.  It speaks volumes actually. We shouldn't take the SOS seat off the table by elevating Husted. I believe that the rejection of Republicans statewide had more to do with the Husted-like candidates we've been putting up than just the Taftian screw-ups and scandals. Don't get me wrong Taft had a lot to do with it, but the fault is not his alone. Husted was in leadership during this time and he bears a lot of responsibility for putting us in this mess. That is why he cannot win statewide. People are going to remember who was in charge...and if they don't I guarantee you that the Democrats will make that an issue. That's what I would do...and we've already seen with the Lehman Bros. gambit, that Chris Redfern is ready to smear every Republican with whatever he thinks will work. Husted is a no-go and as soon as establishment types like yourself realize that, the sooner we can get serious about finding a candidate who can actually win.

KS: this is just one we'll have to agree to disagree on. there is NO ONE else to run for SOS.  my 
guess is the mid-year filings will look something like this:

husted $1 million plus

coughlin $75,000

o'brien $50,000

there is NO WAY ON THE PLANET coughlin or o'brien can beat husted when they are being 
outspent by multiples of 10:1, 12:1, 15:1 or more. i agree with you 100% that husted has trampled 
all over the SPIRIT of the law on this residency issue, but on the ACTUAL law he will win this thing 
in Court once it finally reaches Court.  that is one of the big reasons brunner & the BOE keep playing
with it b/c everyone knows at the end of the day that husted will win the issue.  heck, even dems who 
hate him as much or more than you who are attorneys even think so: 

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/progressohio_if_jennifer_brunner_isnt_willing_to_ignore_the_law
_and_play_our_partisan_games_shes_a_coward

I've talked to 3 gop attorneys & 2 dem attorneys and all five people have told me he will win this 
issue.  Now if he were to lose the issue in Court then i am 100% with you...he will not even be a 
candidate for sos. that said, i think he will win the issue, will win vs any primary candidate who files 
against him and his outcome will be the same outcome for the gop's future on 11/4/10. if he wins then 
my gop app bd scenario happens. if he loses then the dem app bd scenario happens. u can stomp, 
bitch, moan and cuss all u want, but i believe those to be the facts of the situation.

MH: Tell it to Jeanette Bradley...she had all the cashola and the establishment GOP hacks in her 
corner too.  How'd that turn out again?

KS: i am a big fan of yours and i agree with you 90% of the time, but you cannot under any scenario 
compare bradley & husted.  husted works hard.  bradley did not. husted has some pretty capable 
people around him.  bradley did not.  husted will have somewhere in the $1.5 to $2 million range of 
funds by the end of the off year alone. bradley had $266,000 in the same time period (i.e. $1.2 to 
1.7 million less than husted) and only $464,000 to spend come primary time where husted will be 
at $2 to $2.5 million by primary time (i.e. $1.5 million to $2 million more in husted's coffers than 
bradley had in her coffers). sandy o'brien spent $196K against bradley's $464K (i.e. sandy got 
outspent less than 5:2). sandy will not have nearly $196K this time.  my guess is she'll be more like 
$125K to husted's $2 to $2.5 million (16:1 or even a 20:1 ratio) bradley & husted are apples & 
oranges. hurting husted in a primary does nothing whatsoever except damage him for the general...
and getting us closer as a party to being in the minority for a very long time. i know u hate to think 
of it like this, but if husted wins then it puts people you love in a better position to be successful. if 
husted loses then it puts people you love in a worse position to be successful. now u can get all 
pissed off about that fact, but i believe that you realize this to be true, but have just not fully come 
to terms with it.  please get through kubler ross' 5 stages of grieving soon so we can start to focus 
on killing dems in nov. 2010.

MH:  I know that you always come back to money because that is your background, but I don't think that way because my background is in grassroots activism.  I cannot support a guy because he has money and that is all that he offers.  If he wins the primary I can hold my nose and vote for him in the general, but I will never support someone who has no integrity.  If Husted wants the support of people like me, he has got to accept responsibility and demonstrate that he has learned his lesson.  I will not accept just his word on it and neither will Ohio's GOP primary voters.  Re: this bit -- "i know u hate to think of it like this, but if husted wins then it puts people you love in a better position to be successful. if husted loses then it puts people you love in a worse position to be successful."  In what world is this even possible?  Husted is a cancer.  If he wins, he drags down the ticket.  If he loses, he has no effect whatsoever on the ticket.  I chose the later option...Please answer the question using something other than dollar signs.  Fundraising is not a "be all / do all" for politics and you know that.  It doesn't hurt, but if that's all you got the candidate deserves to go down in flames.

KS: im not talking about the 2010 ticket. i am talking about the domino effect that will occur if the gop does not control the drawing of the lines with this next app bd. jon wins and the gop wins. jon loses and the gop loses. the house for a long long time, the senate by as early as 2016/18 and the supreme ct by 2018/20 that is the fallout that happens if we lose the app bd. as far as husted outspending o'brien by 15 or 20 to 1 it really does become just that simple. running a great campaign in this state with 13 media markets for tv, the need for a large voter mail effort, advocacy calls, an internet effort and a grassroots effort husted does not really need much more than that. if wishes were horses then dreamers would ride. sandy & others could wish she was not going to have a 15:1 or 20:1 money disadvantage for the primary, but wishing does not make it so. the harsh reality is that the primary is buyable at that $$$ deficit. sandy cannot out-2nd amendment right, out-pro-life, out anti-tax, out traditional marriage husted when she is being outspent at those levels. it just will not happen. husted will be the nominee if/when he wins the residency issue in a Court of Law. beating him down and propping sandy up only does one thing:  helps the dems in the general.  please stop helping the dems in their efforts to win the app bd in 2010.

MH: Again, you resort to money...Are you capable of making an argument without flashing dollar signs?  Because that is an argument that is falling on deaf ears here and around the state. I will also repeat that I don't think Jon Husted can win the general...I have yet to hear an argument for why you think he can that doesn't involve dollar signs.  That is not an argument, it's a dollar sign.  And dollar signs are irrelevent when the base of the party can't stand the guy.  Again: Ask Jeanette Bradley...

KS: there are lots of reasons. i was just being pragmatic/simplistic for the sake of saving time.
removing money from the equation i will just present some things for you to look at. this is part of an upcoming post i'm doing for july/post-budget that i've been working on since reading the wmd & bizzyblog stuff on husted:

House Bill 119 Accomplishments in the 127^th General Assembly

o   Led effort to provide for significant investments in higher education - more than $657 million in scholarships, financial aid for Ohio students, a 36 percent increase more than the executive proposal.

o   Created the student-based Choose Ohio First Scholarship program, which will provide $100 million in scholarship funds throughout the biennium to Ohio students attending Ohio colleges and universities. This scholarship is expected to benefit tens of thousands of students across the state, and will place an emphasis on students pursuing the fields of science, technology, mathematics and medicine (STEM).

o   Provided increases in state funding for the basic instructional subsidy for higher education, State Share of Instruction (SSI).

o   Helped to make a college education more affordable by freezing tuition rates at Ohio ’s two and four year institutions.

o   Worked to restore cuts made by Governor Strickland to provide additional funding for the Ohio Student Choice Grant, which is one of the largest financial assistance programs for higher education in the state, providing grants of $650 per year to Ohio residents.

o   Provided a way out for students trapped in failing schools by restoring voucher and school choice options to families and children across Ohio . The program was eliminated by Governor Stickland and restored in the Ohio House.

o   Ensured Children's Hospitals around the state can continue to serve chronically ill children by restoring supplemental funding of $15 million a year through state and federal dollars.

o   Provided more elderly Ohioans with the change to stay in their home instead of nursing homes by funding an additional 5,600 waiver slots in the PASSPORT program, as well as a 3 percent increase to PASSPORT providers.

o   Provided $20 million in order to assist in the start-up of STEM high school - which will provide our students with the tools and skills our economy demands.

o   Ensured that parents earning more than 300 percent of the poverty level are able to buy Medicaid if a child has a pre-existing condition or catastrophic illness that makes private insurance impossible to obtain.

House Bill 66 Accomplishments

o   Passed a comprehensive tax reform package that included a 21 percent across-the-board income tax cut - the largest income tax cut in Ohio history.

o   Led efforts to craft tax reforms that encourage a healthy business climate, generate jobs and move Ohio ’s economy forward. In addition to reductions in personal income taxes, we reduced the sales tax to 5.5 percent, phased out the corporate franchise tax over five years – an unfair tax that had both high rates and low collections, eliminated the tangible personal property tax – an onerous tax that discouraged growth and investment – over four years and immediately exempted new machinery and equipment purchases and phased in a more fair system of taxation – replaced the corporate franchise tax with a new, broad-based, low-rate Commercial Activities Tax (CAT) at 0.26 percent on all gross receipts above $1 million, to spur business development and job creation.

Other Accomplishments

o   Created the first statewide school voucher program that allows up to 14,000 children to attend a school of their choice. Later expanded the program to make more students eligible for a scholarship and better fill the 14,000.

o   Led effort to pass predatory lending prohibitions into law at the request of community leaders - Senate Bill 185 addresses situations in which buyers are purposely deceived by lenders or mortgage brokers by increasing responsibility for all parts of the lending industry and the home-buying process was a necessary task.

o   Led legislative effort to put the Third Frontier Initiative on the ballot and passed - even after Democrats suggested they would oppose it. This project is the state's largest-ever commitment to expanding Ohio's high-tech research capabilities and promoting innovation and company formation that will create high-paying jobs for generations to come.

·         Passed higher standards for high school graduates with the Ohio Core legislation. The Ohio Core will require all students, beginning with the high school graduation class of 2014, to complete a rigorous curriculum as a requirement for high school graduation and admission into Ohio ’s four-year state assisted institutions of higher education. The Ohio Core curriculum includes four years of math, including Algebra II and three years of lab-based science.

I'm sure I will come up with more stuff once I put a little more time into it.

In comparison, what has Sandy O'Brien done that makes her such a worthwhile candidate?

These are all real, tangible things that Husted has done...not just promises or chest thumping...

Your turn.

Please pick apart the Husted accomplishments and prop up Sandy O now.

MH:  119 is giveaway after giveaway...more pandering, even less substance.

 66 is a mostly good...except, I still think that the CAT needs to be killed.  It is a harbinger of death for business at a time when Ohio needs jobs.  If Husted wants to claim that he created the CAT and pretend that's a good thing, that's a non-starter for me.  (Similarly, I don't like Kasich's "the Assault Weapons Ban bill we were going to get was MUCH worse" for the same reasons.)

 

I give him props for vouchers/education issues...but that's not enough...

 

185 threatened to chase an entire industry out of the state taking more jobs with it...

 

Third Frontier...Taft's nonsense...you really want Husted to tie himself to that?

 

Sandy has a record you can look at that doesn't involve raising taxes during a recession (and believe me, Ohio was in a recession).  Not that I think Sandy is the best candidate either...at this point, my candidate is a menu item at the deli.....

Now some of you who are pragmatic probably side with me and my arguments and a huge portion of the tea party attending, pro-life with no exception, sleep with your gun under your pillow, not so tolerant of gays, etc. etc. probably side with Matt in this debate.

Who you side with in this type of debate is not my point.

My point is that this Republicans killing Republicans stuff has got to stop and it has to stop VERY SOON in Ohio or we are not going to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that I believe are going to be offered up on a silver platter in the November 2010 elections.

I wrote this post almost four months ago to the day:

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2009/02/ohio-republicans-have-not-seen-rock-bottom-yet.html

If anything I would say things are worse now than they were then.

Kevin DeWine, a handful of County Chairs with some clout, the top political operatives and significant elected officials & candidates have got to put an end to this constant in-fighting and killing our own or the only true people who will benefit will be the dems in Ohio.

We have a choice:  Either Republicans are going to continue to kill Republicans in Ohio OR Republicans are going to start focusing on kicking some dems out of office.

Time is running out.

Governor Mark Sanford at a pool in Buenos Aires

My friend Gina Toodman (flaming liberal, but I like her still the same) called "Barnacles!" on me that I only beat up on dems and not on GOPers.  In my defense, I have beaten up on a fair share of Republicans, but in her honor I'm doing a post about yesterday's headlines.  Enjoy! 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzAHp7SZeGc