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Finally!!! John Kasich to announce Designation of Treasurer tomorrow!!!

Now why he is doing his Designation of Treasurer and his Announcement on different days I have little idea, but beggars can't be choosers.

The important thing is that he can now raise at least $2 million before the cut-off so he at least looks semi-impressive at the mid-year filing.

This is just Step One, but it is a very positive step!!!

Where in the world is John Kasich?

I have really, really tried hard to not write about John Kasich, but a reader brought to my attention that we are in the zone of one of my prediction time periods so I figured I'd write a quick post.

My prediction from way back when was that Kasich would announce either ten days before or after the 5/5 primary date or sometime after the 4th of July weekend (if he does in fact announce at all).

Man, I hope this guy announces soon!  He better not leave us at the altar or we are going to be in the minority for a very, very long time.

Just the facts, ma'am...just the facts...

The Center for Media & Public Affairs report on the first 50 days of media coverage (they don't have the tally for the entire 100 days just yet) by the nightly network newscasts is as follows:

Obama                27 hrs & 44 minutes
Bush                    7 hrs & 42 minutes
Clinton                15 hrs & 2 minutes

As an aside, the coverage has been overwhelmingly positive, but they did not establish metrics to measure the level of positivity.

Obama Budget Cuts Visualization

A big thank you to a certain bullfrog for bringing this to my attention!

How much is the $100 million dollars in budget cuts compared to the federal budget as a whole? This video imagines the budget at $100 in pennies to provide the answer.

Great article in the NYT...especially Graham's comments!

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/us/politics/30repubs.html?_r=2&hp

Come on...this is funny! Have a sense of humor...

Message to Senate Republicans: Don't be cowards!!!

There has been talk of doing a one year budget instead of a two year budget.  I guess I have mixed feelings about this issue, but after much consideration I guess I fall on the side of this:

Do the courageous things that need to be done in a two year budget instead of doing a one year budget which all of us know will then make the next one year budget the most politically charged budgetary environment in Ohio's history.

Ultimately, I think the Senate will do a two year budget.  The question is what the heck is it going to look like?

First of all, the Senate will probably pull the whole education plan out of the budget bill altogether (shouldn't shock you) so it can be dealt with (sliced and diced a la the old Ginsu knives commercials) separately.

I guess I'm fine with that approach IF the same kind of courage is shown with the budget bill.

My fear is that the Senate is doing this separation so they can do the right thing with Ted's education plan (which I know that using the word "plan" is really an insult to the word "plan"...how in the F can you call it a plan when you can't even provide your rationale used behind much of anything within it nor how much costs really are for different parts of the plan or how you are going to fund it???) and then take a "business as usual" approach to the budget bill.

I won't go into the line by line of what I hope will happen in the Senate, but here are just a few things on my wish list:

*I implore the Senate to (at a minimum) remove the $1 billion plus that will be generated in the current budget from fee increases.  We all know that a "fee increase" and a "tax increase" are the same exact thing. 

*Additionally, you all know the enormous hole Ohio is going to be facing in the next two year budget so PLEASE use the most conservative estimates in all of your spending calculations (everyone knows the LSC numbers are for shit)

*Restore funding to charter schools to 100%+.  As Jeff Goldblum's character (Dr. Ian Malcolm) said in "Jurassic Park", "Dinosaurs had their shot and nature selected them for extinction."  I'm not saying that public schools are extinct and we should get rid of them, but what I am saying is that the public school system is broke...it is broke and it needs to be fixed.  A wholesale, overnight fix is not going to happen, but charter schools at least offer kids and parents CHOICE...an alternative.  I believe competition is a good thing and that choice is a great thing.  Yes there are some shitty charter schools, but there are also some phenomenal charter schools.  Give charter schools a chance.  Restore their funding.  {And for the Senators who don't have a political bone in their body:  There is ZERO downside to fully restoring funding to the Charter Schools.  If the House and Gov keep that money in the budget then it is a "win" for kids in charter schools and a win for you because the charter school industry are your friends.  If the House &/or Gov dramatically cut the funding to charter schools then the dems are basically helping to solidify your bond with the charter schools and help create a great base for volunteers and votes from the families that have kids in charter schools for the Kasich campaign (if there ever is one) in 2010}.

*Don't throw everything out that Ted came up with just because he came up with it.  Not all of his ideas are bad.  Ted had proposed that it take nine years for a teacher to be granted tenure.  The House put it at three years.  Kudos to Ted on this one...take it back to nine...please!

*Quit wishing for the return of Harris and deal with your current situation:  You have a terrible budget in front of you that the Gov & House have put in your laps:  Deal with it!  Bill did a great job, but he is not coming back.  Tom is a nice guy, but he is not a leader.  That said, the last thing in the world the one GOP stronghold in state government needs right now is grumbings about leadership.  Focus!!!!  Worry about the budget now and worry about Senate Leadership down the road.  Take a page from the House Rs...Dolan and his backers and Batch and his backers were so fixated on who was going to be the next Speaker that neither of them got it...and if Batch isn't careful he may not even be the Minority Leader if his caucus numbers go down to the low 40s (an ever-increasing possibility with each passing day).

Never thought I'd say this, but...Harumph for Dennis Willard!

Dems amend budget again

Lawmakers who find more money spend it

By Dennis J. Willard
Beacon Journal Columbus Bureau

Published on Wednesday, Apr 29, 2009

COLUMBUS: It is truly amazing what lucky House Democrats can do when they just happen to find $1.6 billion lying around.

First, they wanted to take care of two of the most powerful lobbying organizations in the state.

So last week, when they rolled out their version of the two-year budget, House Democrats ensured nursing homes and hospitals would receive hundreds of millions more over the next two years.

The money would come from a combination of drawing down more federal funds and from projected tax collections in the next two years made by the Legislative Service Commission that just happened to be rosier than the numbers Gov. Ted Strickland's budget office forecast.

Forget rabbits' feet. If you get a chance, rub a Democrat lawmaker's tootsies for good luck.

Not everyone was happy last week, however. Sitting in the Finance Committee room were representatives from groups that cling to the safety nets of state government.

You could see the disappointment and disbelief on the faces of people like Gayle Channing Tenenbaum with Voices for Ohio's Children, and Lisa Hamler-Podolski with the Ohio Association of Second
Harvest Foodbanks.

Despite the good news that there was more money to spend, their groups and others were getting crumbs to feed, protect and care for our state's most vulnerable citizens and children.

In the days that followed, this proved embarrassing to Speaker Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, who happens to be on extremely friendly terms with the nursing home industry's leading lobbyist.

Other House Democrats were a little uneasy, too. After all, their spending plan generously sprinkled earmarks into the governor's budget. These little golden nuggets allowed lawmakers to return home the welcomed hero, winning love, affection and votes in their districts.

Late Monday evening and early Tuesday morning, the Democrats on the Finance Committee amended their budget plans again.

Suddenly, there was more money for those clinging to the safety net.

Food banks will get $5 million more in the next two years.

There is an additional $75 million for county-based job and family service boards, primarily for child and adult protective services.

Democrats also found more money for childhood mental health, after-school initiatives, troubled juveniles, young adults moving out of foster care, and health care insurance for children living in families up to 300 percent of the federal poverty level.

The single amendment, which contained dozens of new spending and policy initiatives, also included a couple of tax increases.

For example, the cost of filing for a divorce or dissolution is going up along with the price one would pay to sheriffs for certain writs, orders and transporting prisoners.

There are basically two budgets: the General Revenue Fund, which Strickland and lawmakers like to talk about the most because it represents about half of all the money the state spends each year; and the real budget, the all-funds budget, which includes federal money passed along to the state and also includes all the monies agencies raise and spend through fees and assessments.

Every two years, regardless of party, governors and lawmakers move spending plans out of the General Revenue Fund and into the all-funds budget. Then they make meaningless statements, like, ''The General Revenue Fund budget we are proposing is growing at the smallest rate in (choose one) years/recent memory/history.

Here's the bottom line: House Democrats are going to spend $1.6 billion more in the next two years in the all-funds budget than Strickland has proposed.

Strickland proposed spending $55.5 billion in the first year of the budget and $57.1 billion in the second year.

Last week, when House Democrats unveiled their plan, first-year spending increased by $776.8 million (1.4 percent) to $56.3 billion. In the second year, their plan would spend an additional $699.6 million, a 1.22 percent increase over Strickland to $57.8 billion.

When the budget bill hits the floor this afternoon, Democrats will have added another $91 million from state and federal sources.

It is good to know that the state's financial fortunes are going to be better, according to the Legislative Service Commission, than Strickland's budget office is predicting.

Before the House Democrats could spend $1.6 billion more in the next two years, budget analysts had to tell them the money will be there.

At the same time House Democrats were rolling out their ambitious budget proposal last week, Strickland was issuing yet another order to reduce state spending this year.

Strickland was forced to take action, as once again tax revenues the state is collecting fell below projections.

House Democrats were not fazed.

They also didn't consider that the new, rosier financial predictions by their budget analysts might be used in other ways, like restoring part of the state's savings account, its rainy day fund.

Nor did they think to restore the 10 furloughed (unpaid work) days state employees are being asked to live with next year, although the Strickland administration has acknowledged many workers who live paycheck to paycheck will be pinched by the reduction in their annual pay.

House Democrats found the money and they spent the money. Or was it the other way around?

State Rep. Ron Amstutz, R-Wooster, believes Strickland's numbers are too optimistic and that the House Democratic projections are worse.

He and his House Republican colleagues are also pointing out that the budget includes more than $4 billion in one-time money from the federal government, which would have to be replaced with state dollars in two years.

But they are in the minority this year after controlling the House for 14 years, and it is now the Democrats' turn to define budgetary realities. It was serendipitous that the tax revenue and federal funding resources grew by $1.6 billion since the governor outlined his plan in February.

Next year, when many of these same lawmakers run for re-election to the House, they should use the campaign slogan, ''Vote Democrat because they're just dumb lucky.''

Fisher, Miller, Brunner, Coleman.......none of them get it

"Fisher, Miller, Brunner, Coleman.......none of them get it" was penned by Eye Spy.  We are ecstatic to hear from Eye Spy again and hope they will be able to get some more posts out even though they are crazy busy...hint hint ;-)

 

The Dispatch article http://snipurl.com/gu5ma about Coleman, Fisher and Brunner handing off power to underlings gave me a heart attack - after I had all but recovered from the one I had on Thursday when the Ohio Elections Commission gave Senator Miller only a $1,000 fine for his "my dog ate my homework" line of excuses http://snipurl.com/gy3r5. What is it with these people?  Is it really just because they are Democrats?  It's very very  simple - either something is an ethical conflict or it isn't.  SIMPLE!  (Thought: Maybe Niquette doesn't get it either since he wrote the one on power switching.)

   

Ethic lesson 101 (think Jeff Foxworthy "You might be a redneck if....." instead "It might be an Ethical Conflict if...." 

Mike, Lee and Jen: It might be an Ethical Conflict if you are going to attend your party's political convention where you are serving as delegate for your party's presidential candidate, so maybe you should remove yourself from the decision making processes back in your official office which deal with that particular Presidential election.  Additionally, it might be an ethical conflict if you are a political candidate for another statewide office and again, maybe you should remove yourself from the decision making decision processes in your office which are associated with that election. However, it might not be an ethical conflict if you've only delegated power for practical purposes (i.e. you are out of state for a family wedding), then yes, you can be involved by phone, etc.  Special lesson to Lee:  Whether or not an ethical conflict exists for the OH SOS to perform election duties while the SOS is also a political candidate DOES NOT depend upon whether Blackwell or Brunner hold the job!!!

 

Continuing on to Ethics lesson 102 - Senator Miller - It might be an ethical conflict AND ILLEGAL if your legislative staff works on your campaign during his/her working hours.  Also, it might be an ethical conflict and ILLEGAL to mix your business office expenses with your political campaign expenses and you need to document both very carefully if you've decided to put them both together.  Although if I were you, I guess I'd argue that a $1000 fine is no big shakes so why bother following the LAW?  Why bother paying for anyone worthwhile to do your campaign finances when a.) no one at the SOS or Election Commission really cares, and b.) you could simply save the $$ and pay for good lawyers later if you have to??

 

I must ask the obvious rhetorical question - what would the press reaction be if ANY OF these people were Republicans???  I need a shot of something really strong now and its only 10 AM!

 

Ted, Taylor, Tea Parties and TAXES - Part 2 of 2

"Ted, Taylor, Tea Parties and TAXES - Part 2 of 2" is penned by Guest Columnist An Occasional Thinker.  An Occasional Thinker is knee deep in sh*t right now (aka Strickland's budget), but was kind enough to pen this two part series over the weekend. 

“Road?  Where we’re going, we don’t need roads”

Ted, Taylor, Tea Parties and TAXES – Part 2

(A Few Real Ideas – Because we all get sick of people who complain but have no real ideas):

Reinventing Ohio’s Local Governments:

• When I think reinventing government, I don’t mean Al Gore inventing the internet sort of thing.  I mean it’s time for the Governor and Legislature to use the intellectual capital and anti-government sentiment to get serious about regionalization and elimination of duplication by all the taxing political subdivisions in Ohio.  
• We have 88 counties, about 48 too many.  We have 612 school districts about 300 too many, (120 have less than 1,000 students).  We have 1,308 townships, about 1,000 too many (seriously there should not be one township within any of the “Three C’s” city limits).  With those government subdivisions, we have a number of officeholders, police and fire, water and sewer, etc., and all their collective bureaucratic functions, assets, buildings and lots and lots of duplicity and extra taxes.  We need to reform for the future versus living in 1985 when computers were the size of my first house.  If we don’t do this, Ohio will never, I repeat NEVER be ‘tax’ competitive again.   This is “two roads diverged in a wood” time and Ohio’s elected officials are either going to act in Ohio’s best interest or lay the groundwork for other states to steal jobs from Ohio in breathtaking amounts (think what THAT will do to the tax base).

To the Republicans:

• Prove it: Go find $500m to $1 billion in cuts in this biennium budget and place it in the budget stabilization fund without hurting vital human services or education.  It won’t fix the hole, but please prove that with a $54 billion budget, it’s possible to find that much government waste and take the heat for cutting it.  If you can’t do this, shut up about cutting government, do a temporary sales tax or stop the House Bill 66 income tax reductions. You should bank this revenue for our budget Armageddon in two years or use it to pay for a political subdivision regionalization/elimination constitutional amendment (see above).

To the Governor:

Serious Civil Service Reform!  First, kudos to Strickland for cutting 3,000 state worker positions.  I will be more impressed if he can cut another 3,000, but he did about 3,000 better than Taft and Voinovich. 

Really I have no issue with our state workers, 90 percent of them do a great job and deserve their hard earned pay. It’s the 10 percent that the unions protect that pisses me off.  You know the ones I am talking about that don’t answer the phone, talk back to supervisors, have sex in the stairways of the Rhodes, and generally have an attitude.  Anyhow note to the Governor, stop worrying about the base or paying back the unions for their help in electing you.  As a democrat, you have the best ability to reign in the state’s civil service unions.  It can’t be done without you. 

Go back to the first reported collective bargaining plan leaked to the media in early March that reduced their salary and benefits to look more like the private sectors. And DON’T give them a guaranteed raise in 2012.  Who gets guaranteed raises in a recession?  While you’re at it give your Cabinet Directors and Agency Heads 30 days once a year to fire any documented deadwood without repercussion, appeals, etc. from the union. And finally, eliminate state worker positions where the private sector is cheaper and more efficient i.e. health care staff or running workers compensation. ..at least make them compete or bid on some contracts.

• Earmarks. It’s not hard for a Governor to introduce a budget plan with virtually no earmarks. It’s much harder to keep it free of legislators’ pet projects. The General Assembly is not quite half-way done with the budget bill, but already added millions in earmarks.    It will take brass balls and real courage for the Governor to veto these additions over the opposition of the Legislature.

K-12 Education:

• The Governor’s education plan (House Bill 1) is such a mess I don’t have a clue what to say except we need more funding.  So where do you get more REAL money for education?  Casinos!
• Casino’s For Education.  I know Ohioans have NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) issues with casinos but other states are laughing all the way to the bank as we send them millions of what could be Ohio’s education dollars. Cincinnati, Cleveland and Toledo should get Ohio’s only 3 casino locations.  The Governor and the Department of Development should award the strongest casino projects that include an adjacent convention center and or a stadium/arena.  Why Toledo and why not Columbus?  Columbus doesn’t need one.  It’s the most economically thriving city in the state, it has The Ohio State University, state government, and a young population...  Toledo? Like Cincinnati it’s a border city near gambling locations that pretty much suck.  If you do it right in Toledo, Michigan will come, as there is no reason to go to the terrible casinos in Detroit.   And what about the racetracks…screw the racetracks.  After three to five terribly run ballot campaigns and legislative attempts at a money grab, track owners and their consultants haven’t proved they could do anything right.

Higher Education:  

• Finding a Niche. Senator Eric Fingerhut, turned Chancellor, began much needed higher ed reform when the Governor made him a member of his Cabinet and granted him authority to better regulate public universities.  The Chancellor has since organized the colleges and universities under a “University System” structure. Now comes the tough part, political courage.  The Chancellor should narrow college and university curriculums based on...gasp...what they were actually good at.  The university system in PA for example went from a shotgun approach to a laser approach.  If a college was good at business, but not engineering, then the engineering curriculum was dropped and more resources were allocated to the business school. It’s time to take names and eliminate some programs, you know like Farm Sciences at Cleveland State.
• University Administrative/Bureaucratic costs.  In addition to making public universities more outcome-based for education purposes, the Chancellor should be given authority to set caps and funding incentives to eliminate wasteful spending on university administration. Love Gordon Gee, but his salary alone could pay for about 200 kids to attend OSU.  If you are ever out of town and you run into OSU faculty where do you see them?  You don't see them at the Days Inn and Olive Garden.  You see them arrive in a very nice Hertz or Avis rental car at some of the nicest hotels and restaurants in the city.  Want to run into OSU faculty in Columbus during the week?  Try Lindey's or Rigsby's.  I guarantee those folks are not paying those tabs out of their own pocket.  Ever been inside ANY building at OSU?  Everything is new.  It is time for higher ed to quit feeding at the trough and live the way everyday Ohioans live.  We stay at the Red Roof.  We rent the compact car from Thrifty.  We eat at Olive Garden.  Higher ed better make these changes internally or my guess/hope is that the Legislature makes these changes for them.
• Capital Costs.  The Chancellor should be given more control over the construction of new buildings on public university campuses (Have you seen Ohio State’s new castle, I mean student union?).  I am all for renovation but new construction on our public campuses is out of control. Place a five-year moratorium on public funding of new campus buildings. If they need something bad enough, get private funding. This would save millions of bond dollars for other publicly funded projects.  All projects should be Single Prime instead of the current Multiple Prime contracting that exists today.  I would absolutely LOVE to see a study that factually lists the HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of dollars this state has wasted on Multiple Prime contracting alone.

Corrections:

• Administrative Costs. Ohio’s Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections consumes about $2 billion annually.  DRC houses about 51k offenders and the Department of Youth Services another 2k.  There are 13,500 staff positions at DRC, about 7,000 prison guards.  I would say nearly 7,000 bureaucrats to watch 7,000 prison guards who watch 51,000 offenders equals too many bureaucrats.  Seriously think about it; the ratio of bureaucrats to prison guards is nearly1:1, the ratio of prison guards to prisoners is 7:1?
• ‘Just Say No’.  Release all non-violent drug offenders and legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over.
• “Life” vs. “Death”.   I’m a pro-capital punishment kind of guy, an eye for an eye.  Actually firing squads and torture for rapists and murderers after trial, some onsite when it’s obvious they’re guilty.   But recent studies show capital punishment has become more expensive than sentencing someone to life in prison. The costs of housing an offender on death row in order to eventually execute them costs about $2m to $3.2m until their dead according to a United Church of Christ Study.  A California study states it’s about $90k a year to house an offender on death row (or about $3.6m over 40 years).  This calculation takes into account exhausting appeals, public defenders, prosecution, court costs, transportation and the electricity (hey electricity is high, just ask PD Reporter Tom Suddes whom is fixated on writing about Ohio’s ‘powerful’ utilities). The same Church of Christ study says housing an offender for “life”, let’s again say 40 years, cost on average $600-$700k. Don’t trust the parishioner’s numbers, okay.  An offender not on death row in Ohio costs approximately $25k a year, or about $1m for 40 years.  There are about 175 of Ohio death row inmates.  We can spend $175m keeping them alive or $350m to $500m frying them.  I realize there’s more to offing people for their bad deeds than costs, but maybe it’s something to consider.
• Healthcare/Aging Prisoners.  The Department of Corrections and Department of Youth Services should contract with a health insurance corporation to place Ohio’s 53k inmates on managed care; require generics versus brand-name drugs for prisoners; and release aging prisoners or turn them over to a private nursing home.

Medicaid/Healthcare

• Comprehensive Healthcare Reform. Boo ha ha haa! That’s funny.
• Mandatory physical education (yes gym class!) participation for all students in schools and colleges not participating in a sport. Don’t like it, tough! Ohio will spend close to $14 billion in Medicaid next year. If you receive any state aid for anything, your fat ass is getting in shape. Not enough teachers or funds to teach phys ed?  Temporarily extend TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) benefits for adults on public assistance who volunteer their time to schools or use college credits and grants to incentivize athletic students to volunteer their time in getting Ohio healthy.
• Prohibit vending machines in our schools that sell soda, coffee, caffeine beverages, candy bars, etc. In addition to their Statehouse visit, require all 4^th graders to visit a farm and learn how to make a frigging salad.     
• Information Technology.  Provide financial incentives for physicians and other medical providers to convert to electronic health records and E-prescribing.  This would reduce duplication, errors and fraud in the Medicaid system.  It also would allow the state to pay claims electronically and manage a decision support system to better understand the Medicaid population’s health.

Sin Taxes and Gas:

• Make Ohio a destination state by allowing border counties to have lower sin taxes on beer, wine, liquor, cigarettes and other tobacco products.  Reduce the state’s portion of the gas tax as well.  This would be a bit complicated constitutionally but it’s possible.  Ohio is surrounded by other states and is home to some of the countries most traveled highways.  It would be a boon for Ohio’s border counties and for the state’s tax revenues, particularly on the sales tax when West Virginia’s buy the extra bag of Doritos and Mountain Dew.

Think these are dumb or have better ideas… write Kyle and or your Congressman.

 

Sorry, but I had to share it...

Ladies and Gentleman...I present the President of the United States...

Paula Brooks: Kitten or Lioness???

Paula Brooks:  Kitten or Lioness???

 Of all the public officeholders in the dem statewide stable I must admit that the person who makes me scratch my head the most is Paula Brooks.

She reminds me of Jon Favreau’s character in the movie “Swingers.”  Hopefully someone who is advising her can play the role of Vince Vaughn’s character (Trent) as follows for those losers who have never seen “Swingers”:

Trent: You know what you are? You're like a big bear with claws and with fangs...

Sue: ...big fucking teeth, man.

Trent: Yeah... big fuckin' teeth on ya'. And she's just like this little bunny, who's just kinda cowering in the corner.

Sue: Shivering.

Trent: Yeah, man just kinda... you know, you got these claws and you're staring at these claws and your thinking to yourself, and with these claws you're thinking, "How am I supposed to kill this bunny, how am I supposed to kill this bunny?"

Sue: And you're poking at it, you're poking at it...

Trent: Yeah, you're not hurting it. You're just kinda gently batting the bunny around, you know what I mean? And the bunny's scared Mike, the bunny's scared of you, shivering.

Sue: And you got these fucking claws and these fangs...

Trent: And you got these fucking claws and these fangs, man! And you're looking at your claws and you're looking at your fangs. And you're thinking to yourself, you don't know what to do, man. "I don't know how to kill the bunny." With *this* you don't know how to kill the bunny, do you know what I mean?

Sue: You're like a big bear, man.

-----------------------------------

Paula Brooks is a big bear…or in my teaser from yesterday she is going to either be a kitten or a lioness.

You see, Paula Brooks is in that rare position that all politicians envy, but very few ever attain:

Her star is on the rise, she is very well positioned in a major county & she could run for statewide office in 2010 from cover since she does not have to run for re-election to the Franklin County Commissioner post until 2012.

The easy, lazy & extremely stupid thing for her to do would be to not run for any statewide office in 2010 and just let 11/4/10 pass as a day on the calendar like any other day on the calendar.  If she does that then on 11/5/10 she will still be a Franklin County Commissioner.

Let’s look at the other two paths she could take if she chooses not to be lazy & extremely stupid:

1)      She could play the role of “turd in a punch bowl” and announce that she is running in any number of primaries and her presence would change the dynamics of any race she entered…

US Senate Primary:  Her entrance would be good for Lee, Strickland and Redfern, but it would be bad for Brunner…but if Brunner hand-picked Marilyn Brown instead of Paula Brooks as her candidate to replace her as SOS wouldn’t it be a nice little “FU” from Paula to Jennifer Lee if she entered this race???  The only thing is that her entrance to this race would also help Zach Space’s bid as well. 

FYI:  You heard it here first (hopefully): Space had nearly $600K on hand on 4/15.  If this guy continues to raise $ at this pace and gets into this US Senate race and the field remains as it is today (don’t write to me and tell me I’m a fucking idiot if the field changes…my prediction is predicated on the field remaining the same) then Zach Space and not Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner will be the dem candidate to replace Voinovich.  That said, if Space chickens out and runs for re-election to his House seat then Jennifer Lee will be the nominee.  Sorry Mr. Peggy Zone Fisher.  I’ve got to call ‘em like I see ‘em.  With the current major metro dominated field this race is Space’s to lose.

I am sure Paula could negotiate for some pretty good loot for herself and her friends with Strickland and Redfern if she chose to pursue this path.  When she lost she would be in the same exact spot she would have been in if she was lazy & stupid…still on Franklin County Commission.

Secretary of State Primary:  Paula Brooks and Marilyn Brown cannot stand each other.  Period.  If there were no laws and God turned her head for a day then I’m pretty sure these two women would gouge each other’s eyes out (it would be interesting to see if that then triggered the Judge and Rick to throw down in a bad, home movie version of an MMA bout)…but I digress.  If Mason gets into this race and this thing ends up being a Mason vs Brown race then Brooks could simply wait until early 2010 when she could quietly circulate petitions and file for SOS at the last minute.  A Mason vs Brown & Brooks would almost certainly spell doom for Marilyn’s bid and since Marilyn would not be running from cover (her Commissioner seat is up in 2010) she would be out of public office altogether.  If I were Paula and Paula’s people I would be trying to find a candidate right now that Paula has a good relationship with to run for Marilyn’s Commission seat.

If Paula takes this route she could get rid of her nemesis on Commission and after she lost she would be in the same exact spot she would have been in if she was lazy & stupid…still on Franklin County Commission.

2)      She could get out in front of any other candidate and announce for Auditor yesterday.  I say yesterday because I have no idea on the planet why she is not announced already.  I have no idea what the heck she is waiting for, but she and whoever is advising her need to have their heads checked.

For those of you who have been reading this blog for awhile (thanks by the way!) you know that I have predicted in the past that David Pepper would be either the dem candidate for Auditor or he will be Lee Fisher’s replacement on the Strickland ticket as Lt. Governor.  I stand by that prediction still today.

That said, I thought for sure that Strickland would have announced by now that Tim Ryan was going to be Fisher’s replacement on his ticket.  I am baffled as to why this has not happened yet. 

The only reason I can think of that makes any sense for (a) Strickland not announcing Ryan as Fisher’s replacement for a “Strickland/Ryan 2010” ticket and (b) Pepper not announcing for Auditor already (who does he think he is waiting this long…John Kasich???) vs Mary Taylor is that something has happened between Ryan and Strickland (i.e. either Strickland has rescinded the offer or Ryan has gotten cold feet and is going to stay in Congress). 

I am going to do some snooping around on this and see what I can come up with, but something is going to happen on this front…and soon.  Strickland doesn’t want Fisher back as LG and one of the ways to insure that won’t happen is to pick Lee’s replacement.

My guess is either Ted and Tim Ryan will get things worked out soon and we’ll see a “Strickland/Ryan 2010” unveiling or they won’t get things worked out and we’ll soon see a “Strickland/Pepper 2010” unveiling shortly.

(NOTE:  Since writing this post it was brought to my attention that Ryan is out which means David Pepper is in.  Look for Strickland to announce Pepper as his pick sometime in the very near future leaving the Auditor spot wide open on the dem side.  Sorry in advance to the mainstream media for announcing this as new before any of you).

No matter what happens with all of that LG stuff, there is no reason on the planet why Paula Brooks should not have already announced for Auditor.

If I were Paula I would not take the “turd in the punch bowl” option.  I would instead run from cover for Auditor vs Mary Taylor.

Being an Apportionment Board seat means that millions of dollars will be spent trying to make Paula Brooks a recognizable name statewide.  That is never a bad thing.

If Paula runs from cover and loses then she is the presumptive favorite for Auditor in 2014 since Taylor will be term-limited.  Paula will have had millions spent on her campaign, she’ll cruise to re-election countywide for Commission in 2012 and she’ll be very hard to beat in 2014 (A nicer position to be in than say being lazy & stupid and not running).

If Paula runs and wins then she hugely helps out the dems in an Apportionment Board year and is a friggin’ statewide officeholder and potential candidate for Governor in 2014 (got you thinking on that one didn’t I?  that is for another blog post altogether)…

So what is it going to be Paula???

Are you going to be a lazy, stupid kitten or an aggressive, smart lioness…or should I say “tigress” since you are about the only elected official I know who does not have a Wikipedia page…

Please live up to your potential and be more than a fictional character in DC Comics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_Brooks

 

As my daughter would say: LOL!!!

thought this was kinda fitting...

A bad episode of "The West Wing"

Josh Lyman didn't even have to browbeat him to get him to leave the GOP...

Arlen Specter like a modern day Judas, Benedict Arnold...you get the picture...has taken nearly $6 million from Republican donors worldwide, made people like me who have defended him feel betrayed to the Nth degree and left the GOP to run as a dem in 2010.

Where is a falling grand piano in DC when you need one???

Fair Reporting??? Bueller...Bueller...anyone???

"Statehouse for sale...Statehouse for sale...anyone wanna buy a Stateho..."

Those might as well be the words coming out of a certain someone's mouth as these budget deliberations have unfolded.

I know I'm as old school as they come, but fair is fair.

When Householder was Speaker he was on the front page of "The Other Paper", had editorial cartoons on his fundraising in more than one major newspaper and story upon story upon story about fundraising in the House majority caucus.

What have you seen or heard on Armond Budish's fundraising practices???  Crickets.  You have heard crickets...you could hear a pin drop...use any f'ing cliche here that you want...they all apply.

You have heard absolutely nothing. Zero. Zilch.

Budish bends over backwards to try to appease gambling interests...out of the kindness of his heart...really? ... believe that and I have a bridge to sell you.

Budish takes Nursing Home love to an entirely new level...CHA CHING!!! ... because he cares for our elderly...is that a punch line to a joke? ...seriously? ... and the reaction from the mainstream media...

Absolutely NOTHING.

What if Householder would have done the things Budish has done in this budget?  How about Husted?  Any Republican???  Give me a break.

I'm in no way, shape or form saying that the GOP has been filled with saints in the past, but there were stories (and a lot of them) and now with Budish allegedly taking "pay to play" to new heights all we hear from the mainstream media is...

Paula Brooks: Kitten or Lioness???

I know.

Kind of like a bad teaser for the 11 O'Clock News, but I didn't finish the post for today and I have run out of time.

I'll explain my question tomorrow re: the President of the Franklin County Commissioners.

And don't worry, names like Brown, Redfern, Strickland, Pepper, Ryan, Mason & Brunner will be mentioned in the post as well ;-)

If I get caught up I'll run it tomorrow...Wednesday at the latest.

Ted, Taylor, Tea Parties and TAXES – Part 1 of 2

"Ted, Taylor, Tea Parties and TAXES - Part 1 of 2" is penned by Guest Columnist An Occasional Thinker.  An Occasional Thinker is knee deep in sh*t right now (aka Strickland's budget), but was kind enough to pen this two part series over the weekend.  FYI: As good as Part 1 is I have to admit that Part 2 is friggin' fantastic.  Hopefully the dem & R legislators and staffers who read this blog are paying attention this week!

“Road?  Where we’re going, we don’t need roads”

The “Back To the Future” quote seems fitting for the current discussion of taxes and Ohio’s future budgets.  The reality that no one wants to admit (except Mary Taylor, who as Auditor can’t do anything about taxes but can get re-elected criticizing fuzzy math) is Ohio’s expenditures are going to far exceed its revenues once the Federal bailout (aka stimulus) money goes dry in about a year, maybe two. In other words, we need a t..  ta...  taaa...  tax increase!

Unless you’ve been smoking dope in your DeLorean since the 80’s (and that would be awesome dude), you’re not buying the Governor and his budget chief’s story that they don’t know a tax increase is imminent. I am willing to bet that once the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. November 2^nd at Strickland’s victory party, the Governor yells “Uncle” and gives us our tax increase.   Go ahead chuckle my Republican brethrens (notice I said Strickland’s victory party and not Kasich’s), for you would also have to be high on ‘Labrador’ or spending too much time drinking Kool Aid at your local ‘Tea Party’ to believe the rhetoric you can cut government enough to get out of the behemoth hole Ohio finds itself in.  

Speaking of ‘Tea Parties’... Memo to the GOP and Rush Limbaugh you’re not sucking this long time Republican-turned-Independent back into the party by reinterpreting historical events.  So get back in your DeLorean and leave Boston.   In fact, the tea parties, which seemed to attract the party’s extreme wackos (you know the scary ones that may have completed a Klan-Sarah Palin-Tea Party rally cycle), are personifying the party and solidifying why moderates like myself will not return anytime soon (good luck winning general elections without independents/moderates). 

I digress... the point is that while the tea parties are not useful for the persona of the Republican Party, the organizers have tapped into the American psyche on corporate bailouts and taxes.  This anger is also why Governor Strickland and Ohio’s Republican leaders won’t admit to what is needed (three letter word that starts with T, ends with an X and is not something you wear to formal occasions).  Rather than pretend our budget will be fine in a few years, I am waiting for the Governor to “call a spade a spade” and admit to what is going on.  It would go something like this:

“I know we need a tax increase, but darn it I know you don’t want one.  You will throw me out of office if I did it, so we’re going to put that sucker off as long as possible by pretending we don’t need it. We can just will that tax away if we stick together.  Yes We Can!”

Assuming he won’t say that, and no one will raise taxes, I beg the Governor and Republicans to do something beyond rhetorical avoidance that prepares Ohio to address the shortfall in two years (See Part 2 of this story for my ‘Real Ideas’ tomorrow). 

If our elected officials don’t take this opportunity to begin seriously thinking about how to handle our future deficits, we’ll need a DeLorean to take us back to a tax year we can afford.

Where am I going Doc? I’m thinking my early college years: $9K a year, great happy hours, and late nights with the ladies (Hey what can I say I looked good in frosted blue jeans).  So enjoy your tax brackets suckers. I’m headed back to my 80’s 1099 to party like it’s 1999.

 

Disclaimer:  If you don’t recognize the “Labrador” reference from Cheech and Chong’s Up in Smoke please stay the f#^k out of my decade. 

I have retarded tingles....

http://twitter.com/dannlaw

Like the Energizer Bunny...he just keeps going...and going...and going...