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The Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns (Part 2 of 4)

I applaud their wishful thinking, but the Columbus Dispatch Editorial page from yesterday has truly entered the "Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns" in their lead editorial "Time for reform" (link here):

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/editorials/stories/2008/12/30/twoseats.ART_ART_12-30-08_A6_0JCCB6T.html

In 2000, the Republicans in this state wisely went for the jugular in the Apportionment Board seats to maintain control of the Board thus insuring the GOP having the ability to draw district lines for the House and Senate seats.

Fast forward to today and the democrats are currently poised to do what the GOP did in 2000:  Be in control when it comes time to redraw the district lines for the House and Senate after the 2010 elections.  They are purely not thinking one iota about any of the high-minded things the Dispatch brought up in this editorial. 

The dems want to win the Apportionment Board seats and then they want to annihilate the GOP into oblivion.  Have no delusions.  That is their intent.  That is what they are working towards and if you believe anything else you are truly living in the Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns!

Yesterday we looked at the Governor's race (the 1st of 3 races we'll look at in this series).  Today let's look at the second of these three races and then I have a question that I believe is the real question the Dispatch and other major newspapers need to be asking and up until the writing of this blog post I do not believe the question has been asked. 

That said, this will be "Part Two" in a four part series from Dec. 30th thru Jan. 2nd.  Part Two will focus on just the Auditor's Race:

Mary Taylor's re-election effort:  Oy Vey! In a horrific year for Republicans she did fantastic in 2006.  I had completely underestimated her & her campaign operation and had made the prediction in 12/05 that we would lose all the statewides except Betty Dee Montgomery would barely survive a close one. 

I am still shocked BDM lost, but was even more shocked at the time that Mary won.  On that note, my apologies to Mary and Christina for underestimating your organization.

I hope and pray to the Lord that I am doing the same thing...again.  I really hope that some fantastic shadow, underground campaign is being run as I am writing this blog post and Mary Taylor is a shoe-in to win re-election against whichever dumbocrat files against her.  I pray that is the case.

How in the world can you be the Auditor of this state going into an Apportionment Board election year with the fate of the district lines at risk and only have $38,000 in the bank as of June 08??? 

Seriously.  Come on.  How is that possible?  That amount of money would not scare away opposition if she were still running for a State Rep seat in the Ohio House.

Check most of the statewide's websites and you will see that they have been in the news quite a bit generating press for themselves.  The most recent thing on Mary's site is a UN Commission appointment back in February.

Do a Google Search on "Mary Taylor Ohio" and you will see that she got a little bit of press on Medicaid Savings recently and that is about it.

On LinkedIn?  No.  On MySpace?  Nope.  On Flickr?  Not exactly.  On YouTube?  A teensy weensy, little bit.  On Facebook?  Not personally, but there are two Groups "Mary Taylor Auditor of State" (55 members) & "Mary Taylor for Ohio Auditor" (42 members).  I just joined both Groups so they would both look a little bit more formidable than they were before.

Check out her website:  http://www.citizensformarytaylor.com/ and keep in mind that she is the sitting Auditor for the State of Ohio...

Now check out this website for a term-limited State Senator:  http://www.kevincoughlin.com/ OR
maybe check out the website for an incoming first term State Senator:  http://hustedforohio.com/

I will not show you a website from someone like Rich Cordray because if you are a GOPer it will just depress you and if you are a dumbocrat you will become even more emboldened than you already are after all of the recent "hope" and "change" nonsense that has pervaded politics over the last year or so.

Now do not for a second think that I am not "for" Mary Taylor.  I am 100% for Mary Taylor.  I believe that for the Ohio GOP to be successful over the next decade (yes, you read that correctly "DECADE") then Mary Taylor must win her re-election in 2010.

So, even if I hated her personally, which I do not by the way...it is absolutely imperative that she is successful.

I do not see a scenario where Mary Taylor loses her seat and we keep the Apportionment Board.

It is just that simple.

She wins & we have a chance.  She loses and we lose the Apportionment Board.

We lose the Apportionment Board then by 2016 we will lose the Ohio Senate (along with the House which will already have been democrat).  After the House and Senate are gone then the Labor Unions & the Trial Bar will refocus on something they will be in a position to finally focus on again...control of the Ohio Supreme Court.

Think I am wrong.  Go through your own little personal history lesson of which was the last thing the business community went after once they had won everything else...it was the Supreme Court.

The GOP won the Senate first and then the Governor's office & the Apportionment Board and then the House and then the Supreme Court.

The dumbocrats won the Gov's office, won the House, are going for the Apportionment Board, if they win it they will have the Senate after the 2016 elections and then will be in a position to set all of their collective ammunition on the Supreme Court.

I go through all of that to try to help put into perspective just how important Mary Taylor is to the GOP's success over the next decade.

Volunteer for her.

Give her money if you can afford it.

If you have her ear then please beg her to get out of the office, delegate official duties and get on the road to all 88 counties to touch base with voters and to raise $$$.

Do whatever you are asked to do for her over the next 22 months.

If she will not do what needs to be done to be successful then we as a party will just have to pull a ...

She must win.  Period.

Something to think about during this holiday season

My friend, Andie Brown, usually shares what is below around this time of year from her uncle and I'd like to share it with you:

In 1970 I spent Christmas on a mountain in the jungles of Vietnam.  I have never felt so lonely in my life.  I wished that I could be home, if only for that one day, to go through all of the things that I did every Christmas.  I longed to be with my loved ones, to watch them open their presents and to be able to touch them and wish them a special day, even catch a kiss under the mistletoe.  Instead, we constructed a Christmas tree out of ammo crates and C Ration cardboard.  We decorated it with machine gun ammo, smoke grenades and hand grenades, and someone cut a star out of cardboard for the top.  At the last of the day’s light, just before we took up our guard positions, we stood together and sang "Silent Night."  It’s taken many years for me to be able to hear that song without getting choked up.  As I said, I’ve never felt more lonely in my life.  I have a special affinity for those who can’t be home for the holidays. 

I’m passing this along as I do every year.  Please do one small thing to remember the many that are “Standing the Watch” and are “In harms way” to see that we can enjoy this season without worry.  I do this every year and I encourage all of you to follow suit as well, and, pass this along to your fellow E-mail pals to request that they also do this small thing.  Place an American flag, just a small one, on your Christmas tree.  It's a reminder of those who are not home for the Holidays to be with their loved ones because they are tasked with a higher calling this season.  They are protecting us.  God Bless them and God Bless America.

Quote of the Day

"Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each new year find you a better man."  --Benjamin Franklin

Statistic of the Day

ZERO
Number of convenient care clinics - health clinics in retail locations - in the US in 2002

6,000
Number of convenient care clinics in the US by 2012

I'm going to sound like an elitist here, but who the #@%* cares?!?!?

If we are going to remain a country where the "one man, one vote" continues to apply then I am completely fine with that ...

IF

Each and every person who votes can pass the same test that an immigrant needs to pass to become a citizen of the United States.

Think about it.

How fucking arrogant is it of us to say to immigrants (many of whom came here at great personal risk to themselves and their family) that they need to pass a US Citizenship Test to become a citizen when nearly half of voters in our country cannot pass the same exact test???????????

Please read the link below and if you have time (if it takes you too long then you are an idiot, stop taking the test and, if you are a registered democrat, proceed blind-folded to the nearest busy intersection on foot) please take the sample test. 

If you have real courage please "Comment" back to me with your honest score and how long it took you to complete it.

I'm not a historian or Einstein by any means and I got 94 out of 100 correct in about 10 minutes with an interruption.  I missed 22, 44, 46, 55, 72 & 85.  NOTE:  A passing grade on this test is considered 65 or higher.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/blinstst.htm

If you passed, hip hip hooray...you are not a product of the shallow end!

If you did not pass, please please please do the rest of the voting populace a favor and go to the movies on Election Day 2010 instead of the voting booth!

The Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns (Part 1 of 4)

I applaud their wishful thinking, but the Columbus Dispatch Editorial page has truly entered the "Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns" in their lead editorial today "Time for reform" (link here):

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/editorials/stories/2008/12/30/twoseats.ART_ART_12-30-08_A6_0JCCB6T.html

In 2000, the Republicans in this state wisely went for the jugular in the Apportionment Board seats to maintain control of the Board thus insuring the GOP having the ability to draw district lines for the House and Senate seats.

Fast forward to today and the democrats are currently poised to do what the GOP did in 2000:  Be in control when it comes time to redraw the district lines for the House and Senate after the 2010 elections.  They are purely not thinking one iota about any of the high-minded things the Dispatch brought up in this editorial.  The dems want to win the Apportionment Board seats and then they want to annihilate the GOP into oblivion.  Have no delusions.  That is their intent.  That is what they are working towards and if you believe anything else you are truly living in the Land of Nymphs, Fairies & Unicorns!

Let's look at the three races and then I have a question that I believe is the real question the Dispatch and other major newspapers need to be asking and up until the writing of this blog post I do not believe the question has been asked. 

That said, this will be "Part One" in a four part series over the next four days.  Part One will focus on just the Gubernatorial Race:

Governor Strickland's re-election effort:  I was shocked to see the Gov's semi-annual 2008 report with just 600K on hand.  Hopefully Armond Budish, Chris Redfern & Barack Obama thanked the Governor for completely focusing his time, efforts & fundraising on the takeover of the Ohio House and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 instead of focusing on putting dollars into his own campaign coffers. 

I will have to ask my democrat friends what that feels like to have a Governor with positive approval ratings willing to do things for other candidates instead of just for themselves. 

I think out of necessity the Governor is about to become somewhat...dare I say...unpopular.

I base this on the fact that Strickland is about to fill a budget hole larger than (I believe, but did not go back and check the budget holes adjusted for CPI compared to The Great Depression era of Governors Cooper, White & Davey from 1929-39) any Governor has had to fill in the history of the state.

Now we already know that the press is going to be on the Governor's side through the entire budget process (a luxury neither Voinovich or Taft had during their combined 16 years in the office) and they have already given him a total "pass" on keeping his word to fix our failing schools so that is going to help, but even with the press on his side it is inevitable the Gov is going to experience some severe blowback and feel some pain for all the things he is about to do.

It is going to happen and it is going to happen in spades.  Just think about some of the things he might take a look at and watch the tsunami occur on Strickland's doorstep:

*Starts talking about eliminating certain tax credits and messing around with our hugely fucked up tax code --- watch businesses & business groups in Ohio go absolutely nuts

*Starts talking about things like Voinovich's old pop tax --- watch Coke, Pepsi & others start a tidal wave of bad publicity for the Gov

*Starts talking about things that would affect any of the most powerful lobbies in the entire state (i.e. the Realtors, Beer & Wine, CPAs, Nursing Homes, Dentists, Doctors, Farm Bureau, etc.) and watch the Statehouse start to crumble to the ground as these 800 pound gorillas flex their muscles

We'll see TV ads, mail, letters to the editor, newspaper ads, blog posts, radio commercials, picketers at the Statehouse, veiled & not-so-veiled threats, etc.

Some of it will be directed at the Legislature, but Strickland will feel most of this pain.

And, when all the dust clears at the end of filling the budget hole, the reality is that a number of industries HAVE TO FEEL CONSIDERABLE PAIN TO FILL THIS LARGE OF A HOLE.  It is going to happen.  It has to happen.  Doing little tricks like using the Rainy Day Fund, grabbing tobacco money, increasing some fees here & there is not going to cut it for this big of a hole.

There is going to be pain...and it is going to be billions and billions upon billions of dollars of pain and the Governor as the leader of the state is going to be the public face of a lot of this pain.

So, basically, a year from now Strickland will have many millions of dollars in his campaign war chest, he will have caused many billions of dollars of pain that will be felt by a lot of Ohio voters and on top of that Strickland will have not kept his promise to fix our schools.

You would think all of that would make someone like John Kasich, Rob Portman or Mike DeWine salivate about the possibility of running against someone in such a position.

Unfortunately, each day that goes by without Kasich, Portman or DeWine actively starting a real campaign for Governor is a day that is overwhelmingly won by Strickland.

Please re-read my post from the first week I started this blog the last week of September:

http://kylesisk.typepad.com/sisker/2008/09/day-1-of-your-c.html

These guys each have about 450 business days to really get constructive things done for a Gubernatorial run between today and November 4, 2010.

Think about that...450 business days.

I think one of these guys will need $12 to $15 million to beat Strickland.

Just so these guys don't feel like I'm pissing in their Wheaties let's take a look at $12 million.

Starting Thursday of this week that basically means that one of these guys:

A) cannot have any primary whatsoever because then we/they are completely fucked without K-Y Jelly

B) has to raise $26,667 each business day from now to 11/4/10

C) need to get started very, very soon to have a chance of getting that done (take into account that if fundraising does not start until 3/1/09 then that money needed per business day climbs from $26,667 to $29,412 per business day)

So with 450 business days to go I am hoping all three (or at least one) of them have a full "real world" campaign team in place as well as a full "online" campaign team in place to run the type of campaign that needs to be run over the next 450 business days to have a chance of beating Strickland.

There are A LOT of things that Kasich, Portman &/or DeWine could be doing right now to be raising significant amounts of money & building a formidable statewide operation, but as of the Post-General 2008 reporting period earlier this month not one of them had opened a campaign committee to receive dollars into to the best of my knowledge.

Strickland is beatable, but it I'm not going to bullshit you guys.  It is going to be really fucking hard to do it and each day that goes by where nothing much is happening on the GOP side is a huge win for Strickland and a huge loss for the GOP.

If too many of these days go by then this Gov's race will be a foregone conclusion and no truly credible GOP candidate will file. 

If Kasich doesn't think he can win he is not going to "take one for the team" or be a "standard bearer for the party."  He is going to walk and I don't blame him.

Portman is too much of a gentleman to say & do the things he would need to say or do to beat Kasich in a primary and, frankly, I do not think he needs to run for shit in 2010 to be viable for his run against Sherrod in 2012.  He is 100% viable to run against Sherrod today and it is completely sexy enough with both the money people and the people in the trenches for Portman to go through 2009, 10 & 11 as the guy who is the announced candidate to unseat Sherrod in 2012.  Rob & his crew:  Please quit talking about Gov or any other down-ticket seat and focus completely on 2012.  Anything else is just muddying the waters for the 2010 statewide ticket.  Please.  Thank you.

As far as DeWine goes I do not know what to say.  That is a tough one.  If Kasich is truly in and is truly going to file on filing day in March 2010 (or before...remember that "running" and "filing" are the difference between "a long engagement" and "actually being married") and going to be the GOP candidate on the ticket on 11/4/10 then I implore DeWine to not even talk about running and just stay out of the whole thing altogether.

BUT, on the other hand, since I don't think Portman should run for Gov in 2010 AND if Kasich is going to say for all of 2009 that he is definitely running, definitely running, 100% running and then backs out at the last minute in early 2010 THEN if that ends up being the scenario we as a party find ourselves in when the time comes then I would love it if Mike DeWine would start running a full-blown statewide campaign operation tomorrow.

At the end of the day, if we have a Rob Burch-like candidate at the top of the ticket against Strickland then the down-tickets will get swept in 2010 and we as a party are going to be fucked for a very long time.

Tick tock, tick tock...

See a Free Preview of Barack Obama's Inaugural Address weeks before he gives it!!!

Ha Ha!  Made you look!!!

Just kidding.

I'm excited to hear "The Orator in Chief" in just a few weeks time.

I am sure Obama's speech will be very, very similar to this speech.

If you have five minutes and thirty seven seconds to spare in your day I would recommend listening to this speech if you have never heard it before.

It is amazing to me how timeless this speech of January 20, 1961 is nearly 48 years later.

For those of you who believe YouTube is a fad

Latest stats just released for year-end 2008 indicate that 13 hours of YouTube video PER MINUTE is being uploaded to YouTube worldwide.

Another interesting tidbit on water

Once again, I guessed wrong on something...I know...not a shock at all since I'm wrong more than I'm right.

So, I'll ask you the same question I got wrong myself:

"What is the largest consumer of indoor water in the typical US household?"

I guessed shower/bath and that was wrong.

Having one teenage daughter who uses enough water to clean the entire roster of the Cleveland Browns led me to believe that a typical family of four would use an enormous amount of water on showers/baths.

The correct answer is the toilet.

The toilet accounts for 27% of all indoor water used by the typical US household.

With that in mind, as Goose urged in a previous post:

"If it's yellow, let it mellow.  If it's brown, flush it down."

Impending water shortage

Even under non-drought conditions, at least 36 states anticipate water shortages by 2013 per the U.S. Government Accountability office.

Water is already an election issue in many states throughout Western & some Southern states.

Many economic experts believe one of the greatest assets the Great Lakes states will possess a decade from now is a nearly inexhaustible supply of clean water. 

With this in mind, I hope politicians in the Great Lakes states will fight tooth & nail to insure we do not give up ANY of our water rights.

Watch for water to be an issue in most states (and a key issue in 5-10 states) in the election for President "post-Obama" in 2016.

By the way, re: that election:  Go Bobby Jindal!!! 

Dear President-Elect Obama

Dear President-Elect Obama,

I know our state was for HRC in the Primary and that has to chap your ass quite a bit.  Sorry about that.

Also, I realize for the first time since the advent of television you really didn't even need Ohio to win the Presidency.  Nice job on that by the way. 

Pretty unreal what an overwhelming money advantage, ground game and the best internet strategy (Side note to the GOP faithful:  Continue to ignore the internet at your own peril.  In case you haven't figured it out:  The internet is not a fad and it is here to stay.  Start living in the new world or get used to losing) of anyone yet to run a campaign in this state.  Bravo! 

As an Ohio voter who wants to see some love thrown our way I was wondering if some love might be in our near future or are we in purgatory for your first term???  I know we are losing Electoral Votes like it is our job.  I can't believe people keep moving south and west from Ohio's tropical climate.  Geesh!

Ohio got zero Cabinet posts.

Will we get any Ambassadors (and not an Ambassadorship like Oman, but something like Norway)?

Your office has received over 300,000 job requests for 7,996 positions within the White House and the OEOB (For those of you who do not know what OEOB stands for it stands for "the place The Kid used to work because he couldn't get a job in the White House").

How many of those 7,996 jobs will go to Ohioans?

Please get back to me at your earliest convenience.

Hope you and Blago are having fun picking up chicks in Hawaii!

Peace!

Kyle

P.S. Sorry I voted for the other guy.  Merry Christmas!!!

Goose says it better than I ever could say it...

"Merry Christmas!!!  That's right, in all my politically incorrect glory:  Merry f-ing Christmas!

Governor Strickland gives the Republicans an early Christmas present!

Governor Strickland proves once again that he is very smart politically by throwing a bone to the African American contingent within the democrat party and naming Kevin Boyce as the next Treasurer of the State of Ohio. 

This eliminates what would surely have been a real headache for both he and Chris Redfern as the rest of the D ticket in 2010 will most certainly be an "all-caucasian" ticket.

However, by making this move Strickland greatly reduces the party's chances of sweeping the statewide offices in 2010.  The ONLY way Boyce wins the seat in 2010 is if Strickland draws a "Rob Burch-esque" candidate for Governor (as I have stated in two earlier posts that, unfortunately, might be what ends up happening to the GOP).  Strickland knew he needed to do something of substance for the African American community and what better thing to do than give a statewide non-Apportionment Board office with some serious graft away. 

Watch for a major shift in the dollars within the TOS office in the first six months of 2009.  The "economy" is about to get very good for some and not so good for others.

I have been saying for weeks now that Boyce would get the nod and just yesterday (a day before all the major newspapers reported it..."say it ain't so, Joe") we reported that Boyce would in fact be the next TOS.  I have never said that was a good idea for Strickland to do it.  I was just saying that was going to be what happens.

The GOP is lucky that neither Rokakis or Donofrio (or even Mallory) were picked to be the next TOS.  All three of them would have been much harder to beat than Boyce.  Boyce is a young, attractive, energetic, well-intentioned candidate who has never had to raise significant dollars of his own in the past and will find it nearly impossible in an Apportionment Board year to raise money for this race.

The warm blanket and protection that he has been afforded by Mayor Coleman on the city level and the democrat dominated environment he is used to with City Council will be a stark contrast to the world he is about to enter.  No more Mayor Coleman to fund your race and protect you.  You are on your own now. 

This is a swing state and not too many people will be interested in your race in a year where the Voino seat and the Martinez open seat will be the two top targets of the extremely powerful & hugely well-funded Harry Reid-led D majority in the entire nation. 

On top of that race we will have the three Apportionment Board seats up for election (the control of which will either cement the dumbocrats sheer dominance of state government for years to come and create an environment where the GOP will even lose control of the Ohio Senate OR if the GOP can win two out of three of Gov, Auditor and Sec. of State then the tenure of a D-led House will be short-lived).

All that said, this blog post is not meant to be a "shitting on Kevin Boyce" blog post.

I think Kevin Boyce and Mike Culp have a chance to run a very smart race for Kevin Boyce's future. 

They can go one of two routes.  They can either take the foolish route of thinking they are going to retain the seat and run a race in all 88 counties with a small portion of their time being spent in Franklin County and the other major metropolitans.  I call this the "Charleta Tavares statewide strategy."  It will not end in success and it will largely have been a waste of time.

I believe both Boyce and Culp are too smart to run that race.

I believe they will take the other route and use the Treasurer's office from 1/09 thru 12/10 as an instrument to insure that Kevin Boyce will be the next Mayor of the City of Columbus after Coleman in either 2011 or 2015.  Using said office and 24 months to that end would be brilliant and I believe that is in fact what Boyce and Culp will do.  It will suck for Mike Mentel and anyone else that wanted to be Mayor after Coleman, but this Strickland appointment if used correctly by Boyce and Culp will jettison Kevin Boyce head, shoulders and torso above anyone else who had a desire to be the next Mayor of Columbus.  You can "buy a lotta love" with that Treasurer's office.  Let the buying begin!

For anyone with credit card debt

Being on a budget sucks, but it is the reality of life for most of us.  I'm always looking for ways to keep my quality of life high without spending a shitload of cash to do it.

A site called www.consumerist.com might be a big help to a number of you who also are on a budget.

Here is a particularly good column about a woman who had some serious credit card debt.  Enjoy!

http://consumerist.com/5059687/reader-pays-off-14330-in-20-months-with-our-tips

Update on the Kevin Boyce Watch

I blogged on 12/3 that Boyce would be sworn in within 41 to 56 days of 12/3/08.  I was not sure at that time when the actual announcement would occur.

Word from on high in the Gov's office has the official Boyce announcement as the appointee as the next Treasurer of the State of Ohio coming as early as tomorrow.

Wouldn't it be nice if my info was reliable and I "scooped" the major newspapers who have written so fondly of me and my friends over the years?

Bible quote for my "friend" who has hit some tough times

"For everyone who does evil hates the Light, and does not come to the Light for fear that his deeds will be exposed." John 3:20

Kevin Coughlin vs. Ted Strickland???

I am not saying that is going to be the way things look on filing deadline of 2010, but I am asking our readers what they think about that ending up being what things look like when all of the other scenarios shake out.

I would love to hear your comments either directly on the blog or via my email at sisk_kyle [at] hotmail [dot] com

I am not yet ready to make my call on who will be the GOP candidate.

I think Kasich would be great, but I don't think he has any desire to run if he doesn't think he can win.  He'll run balls to the wall as if he is going to file, but if he doesn't think he can win he is a smart enough politician to keep his powder dry until another day.  He has no desire to be the "standard bearer for the party."  If he thinks he can win then he will file and run.  If he doesn't think he can win then he won't file and he will wish everyone luck as he moves onto other endeavors.

Portman would be great, but I believe he is a staunch believer in Reagan's Amendment on not gutting other Republicans.  For that reason alone I don't think he runs against anyone credible within the party in a primary.  Frankly, he does not have to do that.

Rob, if you or folks you listen to are reading this I hope you hear me loud and clear:  DO NOT LISTEN TO PEOPLE WHO TELL YOU THAT YOU HAVE TO RUN FOR SOMETHING IN 2010.  YOU DO NOT HAVE TO DO THAT.  Believe me.  It is sexy enough within the party, at Lincoln Day speeches, etc. to tell everyone you meet that you are the announced candidate to unseat Sherrod Brown in 2012.  Hopefully you will use 2009-12 wisely and put together an organization that can prevail against Sayonora Sherrod in 11/12.  Good luck!!!

All that brings me back to my initial question:  Who is actually going to FILE against Ted Strickland in 2010?

Will it be Coughlin?  If it is not Kasich, Portman or Coughlin then WHO will it be???

Please comment or email me at your earliest convenience.

Thanks!

Your favorite political pariah,

Kyle Sisk

Russia and OPEC are talking again

That probably is not a good thing for your family gas budget.

When the price of a barrel of oil was north of $100 Russia basically told OPEC to pound salt they were going to do what they wanted to do.

Interesting how the drop in the price of oil can make these two uncomfortable bedfellows when oil is hovering around $50 a barrel.

In the short run, Russia is playing hard to get and not pledging firmly to make the same production cuts that OPEC is making. 

This will place undue hardship on Iran, Nigeria & Venezuela in the short run, but watch for Russia to be their "savior" in coming months when they will come to the rescue and join with OPEC in making further firm cuts to oil production to bring prices back up.

An Obama Administration would be wise to do whatever it can to reduce our continued reliance on foreign oil.

If oil prices continue to stay around $50 a barrel that will put Obama in a much better negotiating position than W ever was in with Putin, Chavez & Ahmadinejad to name just a few.

Look at Russia alone to get an idea of the importance of oil.

Oil & Gas generate more than 60% of Russia's export revenues and account for over 30% of all foreign direct investment in the country.

Basically, high oil prices = an emboldened Russia which can tell a lot of countries (including the US) to kiss their ass because they are going to do whatever the hell they want to do in any given situation.  They will do whatever they want in Georgia.  They will do what they want in the Ukraine...and anywhere else they damn well please.  Kind of scary, huh???

Prolonged low oil prices = a Russia which will need friends, will need to come to the table to negotiate and will need to compromise on certain things with Obama and with other countries moving forward.

I for one will be out of my SUV soon (yes, I am currently part of the problem and not the solution) and into either a Corolla or a Civic.  When I travel outside of Columbus I either use public transit or a zipcar if I am in a city that has zipcars.

I hope you will join me in doing your own small part in trying to diminish the strength of oil rich countries on the world stage.

Ciao!

Quote of the Day

"Traveler, there is no path.  Paths are made by walking." -- Antonio Machado

The Biggest Boondoggle

I am all for having a strong military, but at a time where we as a nation need to be watching our dollars this does look like a real waste of money. 

Looking forward to 2009 & 2010 the major hotspots for the US are going to be Pakistan & Afghanistan with the continued occupation of Iraq {if oil stays around $50-$75 a barrel for that duration (it will not...sorry) then we might hear a bit of clamoring from Iran as well, but I don't see that happening}.

These carriers are/were made for a kind of war we will not be fighting again.

I say either a) put the $100 billion into more useful military spending or b) spend the $100 billion on something else, but do not under any scenario put another $100 billion into more aircraft carriers...i.e. unless they are going to use them for movies with lots of scantily clad hot chicks...just kidding.

Read the story on the $100 billion expenditure on more aircraft carriers at:

http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/1208/032.html

How the Obama Administration could save $100 billion

Throughout the presidential campaign both candidates repeatedly pledged to ax wasteful spending from the federal budget. Now that the economic crisis is putting further pressure on outlays, will President-elect Barack Obama make good on his promise?

When it comes to spending on the Defense Department's biggest boondoggle, the answer is a definitive no.

Over the next few decades the Pentagon is planning to spend more than $50 billion on its Gerald R. Ford class of aircraft carriers. The first of these 100,000-ton ships is due for completion in 2015, with others following as vessels in the existing 12-carrier fleet are retired. Since aircraft carriers are near helpless without a protective ring of about ten destroyers, frigates and cruisers, the military wants to invest in newer versions of these, too, at a cost of an additional $50 billion.

This plan constitutes a huge waste of taxpayer money and exemplifies the Defense Department's fixation on preserving legacy systems designed for a kind of war that the U.S. is likely never to fight again.

Why won't the next Administration get rid of this white elephant? President-elect Obama simply has too little military expertise to take on the carrier champions, even though his senior adviser on strategic affairs, former Navy secretary Richard Danzig, has in the past called for reducing carrier crew sizes. But Danzig did not call for moving away from giant carriers, and he is unlikely to urge Obama to do so anytime soon.

So it appears that the carrier will live on, at great cost to the American people and at increasing risk to our national security. If there is ever another conflict at sea, it will erupt over Taiwan. Swarms of small Chinese vessels and aircraft armed to the teeth with smart weapons would quickly sink a carrier. The Chinese have focused on producing supersonic antiship missiles and mines that position themselves directly under a ship's keel. They are experimenting with supercavitation torpedoes that create a small bubble of air in front, reducing resistance and allowing them to move at hundreds of knots.

In a world of such weapons, aircraft carriers should paint over their identifying numbers and replace them with bull's-eyes. They have had a good 70-year run as capital ships, but their time is over.

Despite their iconic appeal (think of Tom Cruise in Top Gun, or the elegiac pbs series Carrier) and the juggernaut of military and political support they enjoy, these "fighting ladies" are too vulnerable, cost too much and do too little. When the carrier U.S.S. Carl Vinson was supporting field operations in Iraq between January and June of 2005, at an operating cost of several billion dollars, it dropped a total of just four bombs on enemy targets. In terms of so-called irregular warfare, the most common form of conflict over the past 60 years, carriers have an insignificant role to play. Air Force planes, small or large missiles and artillery make more effective substitutes.

Defenders of the carrier are getting creative. One idea has been to have aircraft catapult off the carrier, fly to land bases and operate from there. This just makes the 41TK2-acre floating airfield the world's most expensive taxi.

Another argument is that carrier aircraft play a key "intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance" role, conveying vital information to ground units hunting insurgents. But other kinds of manned or unmanned aircraft do the job just as well.

Does a carrier have deterrent value? No. Our carriers didn't deter North Korea from invading South Korea in 1950, or North Vietnam from invading South Vietnam in 1965. Carriers were deployed to the Persian Gulf and the northern Arabian Sea during the crisis with Iran over its nuclear enrichment program. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's latest response to such signaling: "The big powers are going down." He doesn't seem deterred.

At $8 billion per ship, spending on aircraft carriers constitutes the single-largest line item in a defense budget that now runs to $500 billion a year. That line should be cut.

John Arquilla is a professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and the author of Worst Enemy: The Reluctant Transformation of the American Military (buy it new on Amazon for $18.15 at http://www.amazon.com/Worst-Enemy-Reluctant-Transformation-American/dp/1566637503/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1229978297&sr=8-1 ).