U.S. Senator or Answer to a Question in a future version of Trivial Pursuit???

I believe those are the choices facing Ohio's current Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (pictured below...I kind of feel like Jason Bourne in "The Bourne Supremacy" paraphrasing his quote to Pamela Landy:  "Get some sleep, Jen.  You look tired"...I digress)

An operative within the GOP ranks asked that I not write this blog post, but quite frankly I know there is no way this post will have any impact whatsoever on whether she does or does not run so screw it.  I guess my mentality is this:  If she surrounds herself with smart people who know what they are doing then she will run either against Voinovich if he does not retire or run for the open US Senate seat if Voinovich does retire.  If, on the other hand, that is not the case then she will run for re-election to Secretary of State in 2010.

Why do I say such a thing with such confidence?  Because oftentimes in politics timing is everything and you only get one bite at the apple.  2010 is Brunner's one bite.  Follow my logic here.  Check out the article below:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/ohiopolitics/entries/2008/11/11/poll_voinovich_vulnerable_in_2.html

Jen Brunner's numbers are about as good and as high as they are going to get as Secretary of State right now.  Sure there were some ups & downs, but, by and large, she had a pretty decent election this year as Secretary of State.  I don't think she will ever have this amount of goodwill and good feelings towards her again among independents come 2010, 12, etc.  Her apex is now.

Look at the scenario that she runs for re-election.  She had $43K on hand in her campaign account in June 08.  Since it is an Apportionment Board year she will probably be able to raise more than the $1.82 million she raised for her 06 election no matter who files against her on the GOP side of the aisle, but other than a little bit of help from Strickland and Redfern she will largely have to put together the dollars by herself...at a time where, on the D side alone, she will be competing with Strickland, Cordray, Treasurer Boyce, whoever is going to beat Mary Taylor, the candidate in the US Senate seat, the Congressional delegation...and the list goes on.  There are only two things that can happen at this point:  she wins her seat for re-election or loses.  Even if she wins the seat where does that get her?  Seriously. 

Even if she wins re-election then all she is doing is positioning herself on a collision course with Richard Cordray.  Now if she thinks she will raise anywhere near the money that Rich will for a contested democrat primary for Governor for 2014 then someone better check her desk drawers or her purse...I guarantee you will find a dime bag and a pipe.  Rich will have a huge money advantage, endorsements advantage...it will not be pretty.  So in 2014 she can either lose a primary against Cordray or run for AG or another down-ticket office.  If that is her play and she has no desire to ever be a U.S. Senator then more power to her.  If Cordray or a Republican wins Governor in 2014 they will probably have the post until 2022 (Note:  We have not had a one term Governor since Gilligan in the 70s) at which point she will be 65 years old (probably not the picture of the 2022 "Hope" or "Change" candidate at that point...sorry...just calling 'em like I see 'em...she will not be Governor of Ohio).  Sherrod Brown just turned 56 last week (Happy Belated Birthday Sayanora Sherrod!) and probably doesn't plan on leaving the majority anytime soon.

So, that brings us to her other opportunity:  running against Voinovich or running in the open U.S. Senate seat if Voinovich opts to retire.  She will be in the driver's seat with Harry Reid and the DSCC because she is the best candidate for the seat.  Sure, she would have to raise some of her own money, but not a lot.  The second she committed to running the Voinovich seat would join the Mel Martinez seat in FL as the top two targeted races for the dumbocrats in 2010.  The DSCC and outside groups would dump more money in Ohio than has ever been dumped before for a U.S. Senate seat.  It would make the Brown/DeWine spending paltry in comparison.

So now all we can do is wait.  Wait to see if Jen and her kitchen cabinet are savvy or...not so much.

 

     

Comments

[Kyle Sisk]

Thanks for the comments and questions guys!

Please...positive or negative...just keep 'em coming!

[Kyle Sisk]

I think Lee Fisher would love to run, but he would have to give up a great gig as head of the Dept of Development. There is no way Strickland will let him run for US Senate and keep his job. I am pretty sure Peggy Zone would make him sleep on the couch for his remaining years if he gave up his current gig to run for US Senate.

Tim Ryan is way too smart politically to give up a strong position in the Pelosi-led Congress...think Linus with his blanket.

Kaptur's voting record would make the Republican Senatorial Committee salivate.

Kucinich is nuttier than squirrel shit and everyone knows it.

The rest of the delegation is not worth mentioning.

Cordray is in line to be Governor.

Redfern is riding high on the hog chalking up victory after victory as Chair and probably making a nice salary...Chairman of the ODP is an f-in' sweet job if you can get it. If he plays his cards right he can retire as Chair like Bennett...well, that is if Bennett will actually retire...

The only guy that could really file and cause everyone on both sides serious headaches would be Paul Pfeifer filing as a democrat. Labor and the Trial Bar would ensure he would have not have a primary and it would be the final "F" you from the ultimate RINO within the Ohio GOP stable of officeholders.

Who else is there? Bueller...Bueller...anyone???

[charles robison]

kyle,

why is she the best Democrat to run for the seat? What about the rest of the cast?

[Quentyn L Daniels]

Mary Taylor has done a pretty good job while she's been in office and by this point the Democrats can't bring up "Taft!" or "Noe!" and expect anyone to give a shit.

Also, she's a Republican...she will raise a good amount.

LOL...we're already talking about '10......