Kind of funny...

I truly am trying to not whack on other bloggers (especially of the political variety), but I do think it is kind of funny that no one was talking much about Kevin Boyce as the next Treasurer until I did and now weeks later other bloggers are presenting this as "breaking news" that they unearthed with their great knowledge of Ohio politics.  As my now 13 year old daughter would say "lol."

I have great respect for Ted Strickland as a politician and the second he picked Cordray as the next AG (great pick for AG and for someone to pass the torch to as the next Gov candidate for your party) I told two of my D friends that Ted would pick Mallory or Boyce.  Period.  I figured Mallory really only had two things going for him (i.e. a decent ballot name and the pitch to the Cincinnati business community that if you put me in Columbus then you can have David Pepper as Mayor and a shot at taking over the majority on County Commission).  Other than those two things, Mallory really didn't have a leg to stand on, has a decent amount of baggage/downside and probably just liked the attention of being mentioned.

Kevin Boyce suffered his only setback in late August with the unfortunate passing of Stephanie Tubbs Jones.  I still strongly believed (80% certainty) Strickland would make the right choice even without Jones putting on a lot of pressure on him on a weekly basis and I think I will be proven right within the coming weeks.  Boyce just has too much upside, very little downside and he helps to balance the very "Republican looking all-caucasian" ballot the democrats are currently putting forth in 2010.

What kind of message would Strickland and Redfern be sending to the black community (and specifically the black ministers) if the 2010 D ballot in Ohio was as follows:

Brunner or Fisher (I know everyone keeps talking about Tim Ryan, but why at 35 yo would you try for an "all your chips in" move for a US Senate seat when you are so well positioned in a Pelosi Congress???  He will 100% have a chance to be a US Senator in the future and, if he plays his cards right, a good chance to be the Speaker of the US House prior to being a junior US Senator from Ohio.  That being said, I don't think he is going to throw away some very good, powerful years in Congress to try to make the move to US Senate in 2010...I stick by my Linus with his security blanket comment from an earlier blog post) vs Voinovich (or someone brave enough to knock him off in a GOP primary...frighteningly doable proposition if the election were held today I am sad to say...GVV is a survivor though and I wouldn't count him out just yet...frankly, GVV will be 74 yo in 2010 and I personally wish he would retire and not seek re-election...starting to get the feel of Willie Mays with the Mets or Michael Jordan with the Wizards.  He has had a great career and I would hate to see it end with a loss in a GOP primary or even a General Election.  If he does retire, it will be interesting to see who surfaces for this seat).

Strickland vs Kasich (or the GOP equivalent of Rob Burch if Kasich bows out before the filing deadline at the last minute...a proposition I am scared is 50/50 today)

Cordray vs Crites (or someone with a real ballot name if they have the stones...I know you read this blog and yes I am talking to you oh former AG of Ohio)

Brunner if she is a coward and does not run for the US Senate or ??? will be the d candidate for Secretary of State??? if she does what is in her own best interests and does run for US Senate.  I don't pretend to know the dynamics of the D party, but from the outside looking in I would say a lot of pressure will come her way for her to run for re-election in an Apportionment Board year and "take one for the team" and pass up running for US Senate.  That would be great for the party and terrible for her personally.  She will never in this lifetime have another bite at the apple to be in the US Senate or to be positioned to run for Governor.  This will be an interesting drama to watch unfold...selfish and she is a US Senator...unselfish and she wallows in the morass of being down-ticket statewide until her eventual retirement or defeat...never to have the chance at anything higher than a down-ticket office.

Some caucasian like Rokakis, Donofrio or Quill OR Boyce or Mallory...Boyce is Strickland's best option. 

Best democrat they can find in the state vs Mary Taylor or ???.  I have read the least about this seat and yet I personally find it the most intriguing.  What I am about to write will be scoffed at by many, but if I end up being right then a lot of other bloggers in this state will write about this many months from now and present this information as "breaking news" that they personally came up with (please take note that this potential prediction is coming before Thanksgiving 2008):

If Mary Taylor is smart (and I believe that she is) she will run against Voinovich in the primary for US Senate.  I know.  At first blush it sounds crazy, but think about the logic behind that statement for a minute and I believe you will come to the conclusion it has serious merit.  She had $38K for her re-election effort in June of this year.  She hates raising $.  She is not very good at raising $.  Even with the Auditor seat being an Apportionment Board seat it is still hard to raise $ for this seat.  She has to be the #1 target of the d party in 2010 if she runs for re-election.  If, instead, she runs against GVV in the US Senate primary she will have a huge constituency that will be for her with $ and major grassroots support.  She is better on all GOP platform issues than Voinovich.  All she has to do is raise enough to win the primary.  Now I realize that is a somewhat daunting task, but I believe she has a choice between two not-so-good options and the better, more likely to be successful option is the primary run vs. Voinovich.  If she beats GVV then she does not have to raise a penny for herself for the General Election because at that point her race and the Mel Martinez re-elect in FL will be the top two Senatorial races in the US.

So, with all of these scenarios up in the air I think Strickland will do the safe and smart thing by naming Boyce to be  the next Treasurer.  It will diversify the ticket with a strong candidate from Central Ohio and will position himself and Redfern to put candidates of any race they want in the Apportionment Board seats.

I would love to hear your thoughts on this blog post.  Thanks!

Comments

[Jeremiah]

One thing no one is talking about is the only D who could wipe the floor with Voinivich - Ted Strickland. Anyone want to guess the odds of Ted entering the Senate race? Has he said he has no interest in going back to DC? I thought the feeling was he would have considered a VP offer this year...

Cordray would have a quicker ride into 358 North Parkview, but he's as qualified as he's going to get.

[Kyle Sisk]

Campaign Junkie,

First of all, thank you for the comment and for even reading my blog. I very much appreciate it.

I agree with you that I do not think she will ultimately run vs. GVV.

I agree with you on the Reagan 80% comment. Too often we end up having nasty primary battles when an officeholder like GVV is involved. Anyone with enough $ to hire Hans, Neil/Glen, etc. who is a potential GOP candidate HAS to be salivating at what have to be GVVs dismal numbers if he faced a strong pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-bailout, time for a change candidate.

I am not advocating for anyone to run against GVV. Hell, if GVV had not (at the intense urging of the late, great Paul Mifsud) given Betty Dee a chunk'o'change in '94 we never would have beat Lee Fisher in '94. GVV/Doug Preisse gave me my first job back in '93. I like Voinovich. I can't believe at his age he is running again (or that Janet is letting him run again), but since he is running I sure as hell hope he wins. I do worry that he might draw opposition in a primary though. There is definitely some serious Voino-fatigue in the crisp Ohio air.

I don't have it, but A LOT of people do. Being super pro-bailout might help him in a general election, but if he draws a primary opponent it won't help him in the primary at all...and you know the WSJ would like nothing more than to rev up their old, nasty anti-GVV editorials...or maybe not since they are under different ownership ;-)

As a former Cleveland lobbyist-friend of mine with a summer birthday party I used to get invited to prior to being a political pariah used to repeatedly say, "Never underestimate the political savvy of George Victor Voinovich. That mother f-er is a survivor."

I hope he has it in him to be a survivor at least one more time.

[thecampaignjunkie]

Mary Taylor will not run against GV...it is absurd and she would lose. No matter what our personal feelings on GV and his chance of losing in the general in 2010, remember the Reagan mantra - if you are with me 80% of the time - you are my friend.

This is the same discussions that we had in 2005 that ultimatly led to a DeWine defeat and to me to watching a certain Sherrod Brown on the auto bailouts. Made me ralph!

GV is never going to please us all, but he is certainly better than the alternative. We should not follow our 2005 past and learn from history. If he wants to run, let's line up behind him and make sure he wins.

After all, I do not want to have to be watching Senator Fisher two years from now.

[John Doe]

Oh, boy. I think I have a massive headache setting in.
To tell the truth Kevin won’t say, period. My guess is that his concern about what could or would be done against him and right now in my opinion he has a plan and he wants it to lay out a certain way and that’s it. I could guess and be wrong or correct in my assumption but either way I don’t want to piss the dude off. He knows what he has to do if he is going to end up where he wants and as a Foot Soldier ready to help I do not want to break his trust.

Alex Arshinkoff needs to realize that the funding is about dried up and people have had it with him and his antics. This includes his false crying fits in front of crowds which is humiliating to me because he is our Chair and his two-timing promises in front of the press and Central Committee members and then changing the rules later behind their backs. Yes I am a witness to this and it pisses me off. The struggle is not eternal but will be over soon. He said he’d bring in 1.9 million for the 2008 General and the pre-general report shows balance on hand $197,241.72 of which $99,046.36 is outstanding debt. So that’s $98,195.36 CASH ON HAND! I think the man is a little over 1.8 million off in his promise to deliver. That is not what someone told me, I am looking at a copy of the finance report. The Summit County Republican Party is in sad shape and I don’t believe he cares.

As far as Wayne Jones and Alex Arshinkoff, Alex Arshinkoff hates Jones because Jones did not let him pull off the crap that the last democrat board member let him get away with while he was a Board member. I believe Wayne Jones hates him more so because Arshinkoff acted like he was obligated to continue the BS at the BOE. Since Arshinkoff was justifiably removed from the BOE he still runs the show on the RINO side with his puppet Dailey. Dailey the fool he is, is totally ignorant of title 35 with the ORC and does not know what he is doing, period.

I don’t mean to piss you off with “John Doe” but there are reasons why and it has to be done, just bear with me.

I know Mrs. Taylor is a wonderful Lady and her Husband is a fine Gentleman but they are going to not only have to distance themselves but totally end their relationship with Alex Arshinkoff. He has become a bitter poison to eat and now we have candidates that are going down because of him. He has to become the “Lone survivor” on an Island all unto himself. With that said she should win re-election, barely. She will most likely run for treasurer afterwards. The way the landscape is at this time I don’t believe we will win anything else and it’s because of us not recruiting candidates for State wide seats and our musical chairs that we were doing (remember Betty going for AG again?)

My head ache is setting in. More later.

[Ben Keeler]

Minus a major shift in the winds, Kasich will need more $ than Strickland regardless.

Petro wont get enough money to run for AG, even if he wants to do it. The party is going to focus its effort elsewhere.....like apportionment board seats.

[Kyle Sisk]

Ben,

I agree completely. I think JMP will run for Chief Justice instead of for AG...much easier race, a lot fewer dollars needed, not as rough and tumble of a TV campaign (Nancy hates the nasty TV), won't be too much of a distraction to their travel schedule to FL, Europe, etc. and Jim has always wanted to be a judge.

I can still dare to dream of a Petro v Cordray match-up though.

I think if Kasich could put together the resources against Strickland to tell people what they need to hear then he could beat Strickland. I just do not think that will happen. It is really difficult in this day and age to raise $10-$15 million against the sitting Governor of Ohio when they are not an idiot...and Strickland is no idiot. You can buy a lot of truth with $10-$15 million.

Take your potential scenario of Strickland raising taxes to pay for his school funding plan.

If he does that, but then has $10-$15 million plus to defend himself then how much (realistically) do you think Kasich would need to raise to mount a potentially winning campaign in that scenario???????

[Ben Keeler]

I do not agree that Strickland will be unbeatable. Is he the favorite? yeah. but anything can happen between now and then, and strickland has made a huge deal about his school funding plan - or lack thereof so far. what if he raises taxes as part of it?

Just to add something to this, I would think that is almost a foregone conclusion Petro is running for CJ of the Ohio Supreme Court. Any talk of him going for AG again seems absurd.

[Kyle Sisk]

Dear John Doe,

Good, Bad & my take on your input:

The Good: I really appreciate your comments and it seems like you have quite a bit of inside info as to the happenings in Summit County. I hope you continue to read this blog and inform us as to future developments you are aware of. For example, if you know what Kevin Coughlin is running for please do tell. He has the best website of any State Senator, has increased his web presence and has the following snippet in his wikipedia profile:

"He is regarded as a strong campaigner and has won all of his elections in Democrat-leaning Summit County, including an impressive victory for re-election in 2006. Coughlin's popularity in Northeast Ohio and among Ohio conservatives, as well as his crossover appeal have led to speculation that he will run for a statewide office."

Also, if you know of anything going on with the eternal struggle between Mr. Arshinkoff & Mr. Coughlin or between Mr. Arshinkoff & Mr. Jones then I am sure our readers would like to know that as well.

The Bad: I 100% realize anonymity can be a very warm blanket to wrap yourself up in, but as someone who has been attacked by anonymity too many times to tell I wish you would find a pair of cajones, grab a sack, man up...all cliches applicable here...and comment as yourself instead of as a John Doe. John Doe is a pussy.

My take on your input: You know a lot more about what is going on in Summit County than I do. Period. That said, I hope that Mrs. Taylor and Miss Haddad are paying attention here: Either Kevin Boyce will win his election in 2010 or he will lose to the GOP candidate...either way the Treasurer seat will not be open in 2014 when Taylor gets term-limited out of Auditor if she seeks the seat in 2010. She is not an attorney. If she runs for Auditor in 2010 then she is banking her political future on being able to move over to Secretary of State??? Wow! Maybe she is that confident, but that is a huge gamble to bank everything on that one seat being available (no I do not think there is a scenario she prevails to be the GOP candidate for Gov in '14).

So, she either runs for re-elect to Auditor and prays to the Almighty that she can transfer over to Secretary of State in '14 or, more than likely, gets pushed off the statewide stage in '14 (or has to be...eek...the LG candidate)

OR

She hires Neil Newhouse & Glen Bolger to do a poll, makes a clear-cut decision soon and prepare for a nasty primary in 2010 vs Voinovich to extend her political life for many years to come.

[Kyle Sisk]

Dear Jill Zimon,

Thank you very much for the offer!

Being a mere zygote in the blogging process (only two months old...goo goo gaa gaa) I truly appreciate the offer to write on your blog if Jen Brunner announces for the US Senate against George Victor Voinovich (my first employer in the nasty business of politics back in '93 for those who like to possess useless knowledge).

Great insights! I do not know enough about Brunner's record as judge to have an opinion. I do believe wholeheartedly that judges in the state of Ohio are very political...Paul Pfeifer, Andy Douglas prior to his current post at OCSEA & his GOP sparring partner Craig Wright, Resnick, Grendell...need I go on ????

[John Doe]

You are correct in you’re assumption that Mary Taylor is smart however she is kept on a short chain controlled by Alex Arshinkoff. She will not go against one of Alex’s political friends for the simple fact that he loves to control or micromanage things to the extreme. Let me give you an example of how in the mix Alex is with the game.
Mary Taylor’s husband owns a construction company that is currently building the U of A’s new stadium of which Alex is a lobbyist for of which I am hearing in the tune for $5000.00 a month. Also I am hearing that Alex is a paid Consultant for the State Auditor (Mary Taylor) for also to the tune of $5000.00 a month. Mr Arshinkoff is also until recently a major contributor to Senator Voinovich and a paid lobbyist that visits the Senator often. Are you getting the picture now?
Since Mary does not do anything unless her Daddy tells her what to do (Alex) I just don’t see that happening. I do see him ordering her to run for treasurer after her second term as Auditor only if she gets that far. If anyone raises money it is Alex Arshinkoff for her, not her for herself. How? He has the Donors Buffaloed into believing he is the point man for all things going on but he is not.
So with this and your assumption I humbly dis-agree

[Jill Zimon]

Pfeiffer knows Pfeiffer best. But I don't think it's fair to graft that on to all of them, let alone someone who isn't even a judge now. I'd suggest looking at her record when she was a judge to see if you feel her decisions were so politically motivated - I have serious doubts that you would be able to demonstrate that - but that's not actually the point.

When you describe someone as being "political" in this context, you were first talking about someone who is a career politician - at least, that's the context in which I read it. Now, you are saying political in terms of someone who wants jobs or positions in which they can make and implement policy.

Again - I don't think Brunner fits into either of those boxes for the purpose of analyzing whether she would run for senate. But even disregarding all that, I will...let you post on my blog if she does announce a run for Voinovich's seat. :)

[Kyle Sisk]

Matt (Part Two),

I appreciate the compliment. I try to keep things light, a little sarcastic with a "balls & strikes" point of view...not much gray area here.

I agree with you that he won't take Cordray on and his best chance of success is running for Chief. I don't think the Chesley association will hurt him. If anything, I think it helps him. No GOPer will run against Petro in a primary and he can have Stan tell the Ds on the down-low that Jim will be better to deal with than they think.

If Stan is for Jim I cannot see a lot of trial attorneys in ADOPT telling Chesley to screw off.

As far as the "$2 million comment" goes I point you to my reply to your comment...very subtle, but I chose my choice of words very carefully and purposely chose "spends" over "costs" because I, too, do not believe it will "cost" $2 million more to beat Petro, but that does not mean he will not "spend" $2 million more against him.

Cordray overspent a huge amount against Crites and did not do very much by way of helping Ds in the House, Senate or Central Ohio (Redfern and company cannot be happy) and my guess is he would continue this pattern of vastly overspending if Petro filed against him in 2010.

I agree with you completely that no one will beat Strickland. I think he has been very smart politically (honey where he has needed it, vinegar where necessary, he has gotten into fights that needed to be fought and artfully dodged the others) and will have $10-15 million to defend his seat.

I also agree with you on Kasich, but, at the end of the day, you and I both know that the most competetent person is not always the person who wins in these things.

As far as your comments on the ORP go I have got to say:

Be fair. It is too soon to tell what kind of ORP a Kevin DeWine-led ORP is going to look like. Think about it for a second. He is not in charge yet. Love or hate Barack he is the President-Elect and cannot be blamed for the financial crisis. It did not happen on his watch. The current state of the ORP is a very similar situation. You cannot with a straight face blame DeWine for the current state of the ORP. He is not in charge yet and will not be in charge until January at the earliest.

Per your CATO Institute remark: I hope you are not right. In our lifetime I hope and pray we have a more conservative governor than Ted Strickland.

A guy can dare to dream, huh???

[Kyle Sisk]

Jill,

I was with you until your judge comment.

Paraphrasing a quote from the venerable Paul Pfeifer:

"I have made way more legislation from the bench than I ever made when I was in the legislature."

I think it would be hard for our judiciary in this state to get MUCH more political. On a scale of 1 to 10 I would have to put our judges at an 8 or a 9.

[Kyle Sisk]

Ben,

I agree with you on everything except for Fisher.

I know he still has the political bug and feels like he has one more good race in him, but I really think his "time window of opportunity" has passed for elective office.

I guess I just wonder why he would give up his current gig: Head of the Dept of Dev't for a term or two then cashing out in the private sector...there are worse fates in life.

If he runs, Strickland would be crazy to let him keep the job.

Why give that up???

Thanks for the input, Ben!

Kyle

[Jill]

And see, Ben, I'd go out on a limb and suggest that Taylor could do extremely well against Voinovich and in no small part because of both Hillary Clinton's appeal to Ohioans as well as Sarah Palin's appeal (which, yes, it's true, doesn't appeal to me but I know she appeals to others). It's perhaps more subtle, but the comfort level with women running and winning in the U.S. Senate is getting higher and higher. Taylor does not espouse extreme right views, she's a professional, if she does good work, she'll be rewarded for it. I don't know - I think she'd have a very good shot in the atmosphere that's developing.

Kyle, about Brunner - see - again - I could be wrong, but my sense was that she practiced law, then she was a jurist for a few years. I still don't consider judges politicians. I believe this position as SOS is her first political job per se - so I just don't get the labeling her as a politician.

Maybe we'll both end up wrong? :)

[The Kid]

For the record -- the "shout out" was for the entertainment value and Kyle acknowledging he reads it. Trust me when I say few people on Earth would like to see him (and the group that comes with him) run less than me......

[Ben Keeler]

Interesting.

I'd be very surprised if Taylor ran against Voinovich, though you make good points. I think he would be too hard to beat.

I've been saying for sometime that Lee Fisher will be the Democrat to run against Voinovich in 2010.

As far as kasich goes, I would agree there is a 50-50 chance on him. I dont think he will run unless he thinks he has an above average chance to win. The next year will tell him alot.

[Kyle Sisk]

Jill,

Thanks for the comments. I wish I had inside info on this one, but I could very well be wrong and I often am (see McCain, amount of losses in Congress & Senate this year, etc.). I am also right every now and again (e.g. Sherrod over DeWine, the House going D this year in Ohio, Casinos losing again...I'm about to be right on Boyce :-) ). My basic assumption with my fellow Miami (OH) grad, Jen Brunner, is that she is a politician ergo she must be ambitious. I see her only road to a higher office than a down-ticket statewide is to win the US Senate race in 2010. Cordray will thump her in 2014 and by 2022 she will not be much of a "spring chicken."

Thank you for your comment. I appreciate it!

[Matt N.]

Thanks for the reply! Your attitudinal and salty postings are great fun.

Unless the numbers start shifting, Petro will know that his only shot is on the Supreme Court. He would be a terrible executive, but Jim has the perfect temperament and style to be a judge (or OBM director). But his work with Chesley can't be helpful. (Sorry that empire plan didn't work out...)

And would it cost $2 million more to beat Jim Petro? That may be a stretch. His name ID is great, but his baggage is not.

And I'll get into the details on my blog later, but I think right now Strickland could not be defeated by anyone. Kasich is a brilliant man with a far more distinguished record in Congress than Strickland, but none of that matters without an opposition party out there causing a stink every single day. The GOP Party establishment- including a lot of those squishes you fundraised for- are not willing to draw clear distinctions between them and the Democrats. For them, politics is a business and power- and not about ideology or liberating entrepreneurs.

And on top of that, The CATO Institute, with sound methodology, gave Gov. Strickland such a high score on fiscal policy that it's becoming apparent to me that Ted could easily go down in history as Ohio's most conservative governor.

[Jill Zimon]

Mary Taylor for Senate in a primary against Voinovich is very doable. Brunner for Senate? Why would that enter your thoughts? I don't pretend to know her well, but I do know her a little bit and interviewed her with just a few other people in 2006 for nearly 90 minutes. I absolutely don't see her as someone interested in going to the U.S. Congress. Your instinct and your info could be far better than mine, but the Senate? Don't see it.

[Kyle Sisk]

Matt,

I really appreciate your comment and I do not necessarily disagree with you completely. I guess I just ask that you look at the situation through a different prism.

If Petro runs for AG instead of Chief Justice then that is a "win" for you because you are not a Jim Petro fan.

If Petro runs for AG and loses, but raises a nice chunk of cash then that will make Cordray spend more than he would have to spend beating on Crites like a drum...again. If Cordray spends $2 million more against Petro than he would against a Crites then that is $2 million that is not being spent in the Apportionment Board races or against a GOP minority in the House (purely not all of it would have ended up elsewhere, but at least a portion would have gone into those races). That scenario also is a "win" for you.

If Petro wins then the D golden boy being groomed for Gov for 2014 will not be in office...not an easy place to win the Gov race from...just ask 1-2-3-4 Lee I. Fisher about that. That is a "win" for you.

It is also a "win" for you because the farm team for judges, US attorneys, etc. come out of the AG office historically. More judges who think like you and me will be elected in years to come if we have more AGs that are GOP than D.

If Petro loses then you are rid of him once again and can make fun of him for another two to four years for losing...also a "win" for you.

Please let me know your thoughts! Thanks again for the comment.

Kyle

[Matt]

Love the "Petro shout out"? Bah- I wish Kyle wouldn't encourage Jim. For the Ohio GOP, that is not change I can believe in.

[The Kid]

Love the Petro shout out.

Yes on Boyce -- and yes on Mallory baggage.

Could not agree more on Ryan -- no real upside. Too much given up, even if it is in the "lower chamber."

No chance on M. Taylor -- she also, will have some future opportunities.