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The Ohio Senate Republican Caucus is full of... (Part 1 of a 3 Part Series)

Since I know there are some sensitive GOP State Senators in Ohio I am going to keep my own personal perspective on what I believe just happened with the Ohio budget as I do this 3 part series.

What I will say is this:  I can see three different reasons for the Ohio Senate Republican Caucus doing what they just did.

I will try to lay out as strong an argument as I can for each day of this series.

Since I have received 41 emails either on Facebook or on my hotmail representing the largest contingent I will address that eventuality today on Day 1 of the 3 part series (FYI: Although I promised you I would not tell you where I sit amongst the three I will tell you I hope today is NOT true, I doubt tomorrow is true and I really hope that Monday is what really happened).

Day 1:  The Ohio Senate Republican Caucus is full of short-sighted people only out for themselves.

I thought the neighbor’s kid who could do math that neither Ted nor the MSM could do (i.e. $933 million – $455 million = $478 million thus leaving a nearly half billion hole still to fill with the gov’s VLT plan…thankfully the Senate insisted on that provision disappearing in the final version) was ready to retire, but I had to bring him out from the bullpen again to do some really hard math.

The kid is a friggin’ Einstein!  He correctly stated with confidence that 21 is in fact much larger than 12 and even 20 is quite a bit larger than 13 (he doesn’t know how true that statement is, but in fairness to him he is only in the 2^nd grade AND he has never met Capri Cafaro in person).

He went on to kick some serious butt in math by stating that 2 is bigger than 1 and, most certainly, 3 is bigger than -0- when it comes to Apportionment Board seats.

Not to beat a dead horse again, but if the 2^nd grade kid across the street who sometimes runs around with his sister’s underwear on his head knows these difficult answers then why doesn’t the Senate GOP Majority???

I made a bad West Wing joke earlier in the week, but the Senate must have taken it seriously because in some alternate “Bizarro World” reality they thought they would get as much blame for this budget morass individually as State Senators come election day 2010 as Ted Strickland would as the governor.

The logical answer to that is: Not a chance in Hades.  Most of their constituents could not pick their State Senator out of a police lineup before this budget happened and probably could not pick their State Senator out of a police lineup if the Senate had held Strickland’s feet to the fire for another four months of interim budgets.

That said, since everyone else has shelved logic at some point in time throughout this budget process I am going to take the same liberties everyone else has and I too am going to shelve logic for a moment.

Let’s assume that the Senate is right and I am wrong on this one (yes, they all individually probably know more about policy than I ever will/care to, but policy and politics are two entirely different animals) and each State Senator would have felt as much public backlash on an individual Senator-by-Senator basis as Strickland for prolonging this budget process come 11/4/10.

My extremely serious question is:  Who cares???

Now granted, I think the Senate was dead wrong on this.  There is NO WAY each individual GOP State Senator would have felt as much pain as our dem governor would have felt on this thing if it kept going and going and going for weeks or even months of interim budgets at a time.  Sure it would have gotten super uncomfortable, but the most amount of pain would have been Strickland’s to own come 11/4/10.

But again, sorry I brought logic back into the equation, even if each GOP State Senator would have felt as much pain as Strickland…in the GRAND SCHEME of things…

WHO GIVES A FLYING FAHRFIGNUGEN since it would not impact their overall numbers in controlling the Senate nor would it impact any of their own careers in the Legislature when it comes time to hop back to their State Rep seat from their State Senate seat {and then ultimately either retire after hopping back & forth, get appointed to a board or commission by the governor, go into the private sector (good joke on that one, huh?  Private sector…I crack myself up sometimes) or in the rare chance possibly, maybe, but not likely make a run for Congress, Statewide office or get picked as an LG candidate)???

This was a chance for Bill Harris to have a phenomenal legacy as he departs the Legislature after a long career at the Statehouse.  He could have gift-wrapped a big shiitake sandwich for Ted Strickland and really given John Kasich a leg up in this Gubernatorial race and helped the prospects for the GOP to win control of the Apportionment Board, but with this budget settlement that was hastily put together the majority (but not all) of the pain he was feeling has ended.  Harris and the Senate GOP essentially handed Ted a tourniquet to stop the bloodletting.

Play my scenario out and tell me where I am wrong.  Please.  Please help me understand this.

Whether you side with the Senate GOP logic or my logic the Senate GOP Caucus ends up in the SAME EXACT PLACE after the 2010 elections (i.e. either with a 21-12 majority or a 20-13 majority).

I think everyone is in agreement that if this temporary budget game would have continued for weeks or months moving forward then Strickland would have felt a TON of pain in the polls while John Kasich (who had ZERO part in this entire budget process) would have been receiving nothing, but positive movement in the polls.

Here is where we’ll agree to disagree, but, again…show me where my logic is wrong since every seat other than the Coughlin open seat and the Goodman open seat are safe (La Rose will have a tough time with the Coughlin seat, but the RSCC will have a ton of $ to spend on him and my guess is the RSCC will just go and outright buy the Goodman seat for Bacon).

So…if they would have prolonged this process it would have been better for Kasich, worse for Strickland, better for the down-ticket statewides and the Senate GOP would have come out of the 2010 elections with a 21-12 or 20-13 majority.

The other thing that I have not seen covered in the papers at all that I am sure had a bearing on the Senate moving to get this done is that the Legislators are used to operating on a “June 30^th & Sayonara Cbus” schedule.  July is when Legislators start to do golf outings and family vacations and nothing like a pesky little state budget was going to get in the way of those typical July activities even if staying in Columbus might have meant helping out other Republicans in Ohio.

Instead, the Senate has helped Ted stop the bleeding, only marginally helped {yes…kudos to the GOP Senate for making Ted own the VLTs at the tracks (since Ted & Pari say $933 million will come in that probably means that optimistically $500-600 million will really come in), but I don’t think that “monkey on Ted’s back” has nearly as much impact as if this budget would have dragged on and on and on} out John Kasich, not really helped the down-ticket statewide and the Senate is in the same exact spot after the elections at 21-12 or 20-13, but did not help the GOP prospects for winning the Apportionment Board control as much as they could have.

All in all, not their finest hour to say the least.

But, again, this is just one potential rationale.  As I stated before, I am just throwing this out there as one of three potential reasons for doing what was just done.  I hope today is not true. 

Let's see what tomorrow brings in the 2nd part of this 3 part series. 

UNO...and Motherly Advice for the Governor on Budget Stalemates / Slots

“UNO….and Motherly Advice for the Governor on Budget Stalemates/Slots” is penned by An Occasional Thinker who thankfully is back with a vengeance!

When I was a kid, I loved playing UNO.   I played well with other children, but my brother always found a way to get under my skin.  Down to my final card, I would shout the obligatory UNO, and my brother would change the color, break out a ‘Reverse’, “Skip”, or ‘Wild’ card or worse he would drop down a ‘Draw 4’.  I would throw the cards across the room or flip the card table.   My brother would laugh, my mother would yell, I was sent to my room crying.  Mom allowed me to come back out if I picked up the mess.  Now and then I would get away with a temporary insanity defense (AKA my brother was teasing me) and mom would make him clean up after my tantrum.  That would be a ‘win’ even if I lost.

The budget stalemate has been one big game of political UNO.  The Governor initially throws out a “SKIP” card and thinks things are moving his way.  The Senate abruptly changes the color. The Governor moves forward shouting “UNO” by holding press conferences about the obstructionist Senate Republicans. The House pulls out a “REVERSE” card on the Senate by dragging in advocates to moan about another billion in cuts.  The Senate whips out a “WILD” card by holding hearings on the Administration’s hastily thrown together slots plan.   All of a sudden the game gets longer and this analogy confusing. 

Now the Governor hasn’t been so bad at UNO. He actually won the first three hands or so. He got his first budget passed with bi-partisan support; pushed a property tax break for seniors; passed his energy bill; and helped Obama win Ohio.   But UNO is a game of points and you have to get to 500 of them to win.  You also have to accept that you will lose a hand or two on the way to the promise land of 500. 

In this current hand, the Governor was playing with his older more experienced brother, the Senate, and was unwilling to accept he already lost it.  In fact, the Governor has had a hard time learning to lose during this budget stalemate because he hasn’t previously. 

Parents understand how hard it is to teach a child that sometimes you lose.  Politicians are like children.  A legislator with his/her first bill hates to give any ground.  A Governor that has “had his cake and eaten it too” for the better part of three years doesn’t want to do an executive order he said he wasn’t going to do.   After 3 weeks it seems the Governor finally realized the Senate had the upper hand on the slots issue. 

This is where I offer the Governor some of my mother’s wisdom for the next fight he has with the Senate ( Oh yes Toto, there will be more):

“You’re too cute for your own good”.   Just because you’re a cute kid or a popular Governor doesn’t mean you’re fooling people when you say your dog ate your homework or budget spreadsheets.  They know. 

 

 “You have no one to blame but yourself”. The Senate can be blamed for some of this mess and for even stalling on a budget fix.  But the budget was your mess from the beginning – your numbers were bad time and time again (heck, your $933 million figure for what the slots are supposed to bring in might be accurate to the penny (NOT!!!), but there is not a person over 8 years old in this state who would believe your or Pari’s estimates at this point in time); the K-12 education/stimulus dollars didn’t add up; the perception of trickery arose when magically the budget deficit grew overnight after the House passed their version; and now, everyone knows you left your word at the door like my mom used to make me leave my shoes at the door and you flip-flopped across the carpet on slots - the money doesn’t add up, the tracks wrote a greedy proposal, there will be lawsuits, the Lottery will screw it up, etc.  No one is fooled about the corner you pro-actively placed yourself.  So step one, stop holding press conferences in an effort to make people believe this is the Senate’s problem. It’s yours, own it, collect yourself and come up with a new strategy.  (I wrote this paragraph yesterday – Governor must have been listening).

“If you’re gonna start a war, bring your army ”.  America calls in the Marines when it starts a war.  Which means the Senate starts with an advantage given President Harris is a Marine. Say what you want about Senator Harris, but he has been a cool cat and delivered one of the best lines in the budget stalemate... something about being shot at by the best or with real bullets.  Not to mention he pulled in some of his best riflemen i.e. Husted, Wagoner, Grendell, while putting Senator Seitz in ‘timeout’ for a few days.  

So why did the Governor bring Lottery Commissioner Dolan to the fight by allowing him to testify on slots before the Senate?  He’s not the Governor’s best guy to put it mildly. Despite what the former Cleveland Councilman thinks, he is not ready for primetime (and never will be) and got slaughtered like a turkey at a Sarah Palin pardon http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ybEbrQeOA&feature=related.

The Governor’s best guy is not a guy at all. It’s either Budget Director Pari Sabety or possibly Amanda Wurst, but most definitely not Dolan.   Now I realize bringing Pari to the Senate for the slots hearing would be akin to bringing Colin Powell back to the UN to convince them Iraq still has WMDs (i.e. she lacks any credibility whatsoever with the Senate).  But when you’re going into enemy territory, you bring your best and you hope for no blood.  Pari could have withstood the Senate’s questions for days, talked a lot, and said absolutely nothing (aka no blood on the Governor’s hands).   

Finally, next time you call on the House Democrats as reinforcements (i.e. hold partisan hearings), be

sure you ask Speaker Budish to keep a muzzle on your fellow Appalachian Rep. Jennifer Garrison (or

would we be better served to call her SOS Candidate Garrison?).  She was TERRIBLE at delivering the

partisan effort, instead delivered a self-righteous miserable rant (over and over again).  Although none

would admit, about a hundred hard working advocates for the poor, hungry, and disabled would have

liked to shoot her rather than listen to another trite peep from her.  For that matter, many House

Democrats on Finance could have used a lesson in how to humiliate the other party without looking like a

bunch of high-fiving tourists wearing Hawaiian shirts, fanny packs, baseball hats, striped tube socks pulled

up to their knees and cameras strapped around their necks http://www.youtube.com

/watch?v=DM6p9st8s8g (p.s. this is frickin funny).  The Senate hearings at least had a ‘perceived’

purpose or mission, if you will, to find out more information about the Governor’s slots plan.  My favorite

line or attack from the House effort was Speaker Budish actually blaming the Senate for “expanding

gambling”, absurd.  SMOOTH is a word Jennifer and the D’s should learn for the next partisan fight or in

Jennifer’s case perhaps a statewide election (Gawd help us).  

 

 

Back to UNO.  If you’re keeping score, the Governor let the Senate, Republicans running statewide,

including Kasich, and even the cavemen over in the House R caucus, get back in the game over the slots

debate and flawed budget strategy.  While the recession and most of the state’s other problems up to this

point couldn’t be tied to him - add a few budget temper tantrums, fuzzy math, significant job loss, flip flop

on gaming, and suddenly the Governor’s ability to get to 500 (i.e. a 2010 re-election) got a lot harder –

see recent poll numbers: 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

The Governor will need all my mother’s advice in the weeks and months ahead - when he is embroiled in

slots related lawsuits –  when he has to defend his unpredictable Lottery commissioner - when slots

estimates are maybe half his $933m and we have a fresh $1 billion revenue hole – when people

understand the sweetheart deals and campaign cash from many of his friends (both registered and

unregistered) representing the 7 tracks and other gaming interests - when these friends and tracks don’t

do what they promised i.e. fix up the tracks, make their down payments – and when he still has to cut

another $1 billion+ or raise taxes before 2010.

 

Take this bet to the bank, slots may become the Governor’s political demise as it will haunt him to election

day November, 2010.  When it does… “Don’t come crying to mom”. 

Quote of the Day

"The life of a man consists not in seeing visions and in dreaming dreams, but in active charity and in willing service."
-- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Calling "balls & strikes" this weekend...

In this video depiction of what is to come this weekend I am playing the role of the guy who is walking with his girlfriend.  The girlfriend represents the constituents in the state of Ohio and the two guys getting beaten up represent...well...that is a surprise for this weekend...

Obama does or does not check her out...you make the call...

Quote of the Day

"Man is the richest whose pleasures are the cheapest."
-- Henry David Thoreau

Sun Tzu would be pleased...

I am now following my buddy on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/Ted_Strickland

His people blocked Keeling which was not a very Christian-like thing to do I might add.

Hopefully the minister will have a little blocker's remorse and not ban me from following
him as well.

We shall see.  I'll keep you updated.  Hopefully he'll be too busy governing the state and
won't be spending his time monitoring his Twitter account.

Where on earth is Mike DeWine???

This is a serious question.

I am not trying to be a smart ass in any way, shape or form.

He filed his designation of treasurer last month:

http://www2.sos.state.oh.us/pls/portal/PORTAL_CF.CF_QRY_CAND_COVERPAGE.show

Other than that I have not heard a word out of him or his camp.

Note that I am not saying that is a bad strategy.

I am just simply pointing out that I have not heard of any activity whatsoever on the
comings and goings of Mike DeWine as I have heard about the activities of all of the
other statewide candidates.

Please comment or email me if you know what is going on with Mr. DeWine.

Thanks!

The Worst Job in Ohio State Government

What was once considered a potential stepping stone to statewide office in Ohio is now considered to be a one way ticket to political obscurity.

Where there was once jockeying being done to be picked for the position there is now jockeying being done to not "get the call" to serve as Ohio's next lieutenant governor on Ted Strickland's ticket.

Only a democrat officeholder with no political savvy whatsoever would even consider running on the "Strickland/Their Last Name 2010" ticket at this point in time.

Tim Ryan was Strickland's first choice to replace Lee I. Fisher as LG and Timmy said, "Go pound salt, Teddy!"

David Pepper was Strickland's second choice to replace Mr. Peggy Zone Fisher as LG and Davy said, "You can take that job and ..."

In any election other than this election cycle I am sure Strickland and his crew would love to take someone like Dean DePiero as their LG, but, as I have stated before, anyone & everyone from NE Ohio (heck, if you have ever even been to Cuyahoga County and you are a dem it may disqualify you from the Redfern/Strickland dem ticket of 2010.  I can just hear the dem screening process before the Pepper for Auditor announcement...David, have you ever been to Cuyahoga County?  No, Ted, I have not.  Ok then David, just one more question:  Have you ever met with or taken money from anyone whose last name ends in a vowel?  No, Ted, I am from Hamilton County.  Everyone my daddy and I have ever raised money from has a last name that ends in a consonant.  Great stuff, David...can I call you Dave?  No, Ted, you may not) is 100% persona non grata in the 2009-2010 cycle.

In my "hopes & dreams" wish list for the MSM being fair I still have this hope I am holding to that some reporter will at some point ask Ted Strickland (not Amanda Worst because she is too slick & will deflect the question well) point blank what he does & does not know about what has gone on up in Cuyahoga County and when did he know it.  He probably knows even more than the FBI guys putting the RICO case together.

But, I digress as I often do...back to the LG spot...

So I'm thinking this:  John Haseley & Co. don't want to look like they are begging someone to be on the gov's (remember...small "g" from now on until Ted does something to deserve a big "G") ticket with him so they really need to make sure whoever they vet for the spot will actually take it if approached.

I still think Paula Brooks brings a number of positives to the table for Ted, but I am hearing that idea is being rebuffed.  Someone within the gov's crew told one of my sources over a few drinks that they thought she had a few scre....I'll be nice and not repeat it, but you get the gist of it.

I had heard rumblings about Jen "I'm gonna knock you out Marilyn Brown" Garrison, but that never, ever made sense for Ted to do.  The Buckeye State Blog boys think she is going to run for SOS in a primary against the Judge's wife and those guys are usually right with this kind of info.

It would be nice if Ted could get someone like a Dusty Rhodes, Todd Portune or Mat Heck, but all of those guys are way too smart to take this incredibly horrible job.

Seriously, think about what your name will be associated with in the newspapers in 2011 if you take this position:

"Strickland/Rhodes call for the largest increase in taxes in the state of Ohio...ever!  This increase surpasses the Taft tax increase by far."

"Under Strickland/Heck the state of Ohio is seeing the largest exodus of jobs in its history.  Employers and college graduates are leaving the Titanic before it sinks."

"Site Selection Magazine rates Ohio #38 under Strickland/Portune due to its onerous tax increases and plummeting bond rating."

Who in their right mind will want to run on this ticket?

Stay tuned to see who will raise their hand and announce to the world:

"I am the dumbest politician in the entire State of Ohio!"

Good video from the future of those two guys who used to get along, but do not anymore

Here they are in the year 2020 with their legal battles still unresolved. The younger of the two was so angry he flew from Columbus, Ohio to the streets of France to confront his former mentor: